Gale Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

552 
FZAK52 PAFC 310003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311315-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 984
MB LOW 70 NM WEST OF GAMBELL EXITS NORTH TO THE CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
TUE. A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST BERING TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 420 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 959 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-311315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24
FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-311315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-311315-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-311315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-311315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-311315-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-311315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-311315-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-311315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-311315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-311315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-311315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-311315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-311315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-311315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-311315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-311315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKST Sun Jan 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level longwave trough remains over the western Bering
sea bringing in southwest flow aloft over the Bering Sea. The
Upper level ridge to the east of the trough is fairly weak and
situated over Bristol Bay. It is causing enough subsidence to
bring in some locally dense fog along the coast. A strong
shortwave trough is moving over Kodiak Island and the southern
half of Cook Inlet as it heads toward Prince William Sound this
evening. This has been the source of the occasionally heavy snow
showers in the Kachemak Bay area today.
Another short wave over the Copper river basin has brought some
snowfall there as well today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The most significant near-term model item is the movement of the
upper level wave through the Cook Inlet region and into Prince
William Sound. Overnight model runs were mostly bringing this
system south of the Kenai Peninsula except for just clipping the
kachemak Bay area, but the track today has been farther northward
which seems to be caught by the 18Z model runs of the GFS and NAM
models. The low in the Bering Sea remains a complex low with
multiple centers, but most of the energy has consolidated into two
main centers which are being resolved much better than they were
yesterday. This has increased confidence in the Winter Weather
Advisories in effect for Southwest mainland Alaska. The system
moving into Southcentral Alaska Tuesday has some subtle
differences between the models that will be the difference
between the precipitation downsloping on the leeward side of the
Kenai and Chugach mountains and those areas getting another shot
of snowfall before the warm upper level ridge builds over the
mainland part of the state for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...some evening snow showers will be in the area which may
cause brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise the should be VFR
conditions through tomorrow.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave will track across the Gulf and Northern
Gulf Coast tonight, with some left over instability ahead of it
causing showery conditions mainly over the Gulf waters. An upper
level ridge and more stable conditions will quickly build in from
west to east behind the above mentioned short-wave, bringing a
brief break from the showery conditions along the Gulf coast
overnight tonight and into Monday morning.

By late Monday morning, precipitation will redevelop over the
areas surrounding the Northern Gulf and Cook Inlet region as
another system moves in from the west. This will initially be a
good set-up for strong low level southeasterly downsloping winds
along the Kenai and Chugach ranges. This will keep areas on the
lee side of the ranges mostly dry, while coastal areas and the
western Susitna Valley will likely see quite a bit of precip with
deep southerly flow from the sub-tropics. However, models are
beginning to show a slightly more southerly component to the
winds, which can result in some precipitation making it over the
mountains. Currently we are expecting little to no snow
accumulation on the lee side of the Kenai and Chugach mountains,
which is subject to change if models continue to trend toward a
more southerly flow pattern. Confidence is high with regards to
the cold air feeding in behind this system and hindering any
significant warm-up. This will keep precipitation mainly as snow,
with rain likely relegated to Kodiak Island and portions of the
Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front continues to move across the eastern Bering Sea
toward Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Within the next several
hours, winds should begin to ramp up along the western capes of
the Bristol Bay zone and coastal locations of the Kuskokwim Delta
as the front approaches. Shortly after the winds arrive, snowfall
will begin to fall which will create blowing snow concerns across
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta coastline as moderate to heavy snow
combines with the wind to create visibilities as low as one half
of a mile. Inland locations of the Kuskokwim Delta will see some
snowfall but the bulk of the snow will fall along the coastline
where 2-5 inches of new snowfall is expected. Higher snow amounts
are expected in the Bristol Bay area north and west of Dillingham
(in the vicinity of the Ahklun Mountains) where 4-8 inches are
expected and some higher amounts may be possible depending on how
long snowfall upslope toward the higher terrain.

The front will quickly dissipate on Monday as it moves inland
with precipitation struggling to move further inland. Current
thoughts are that downsloping will keep a chunk of the Bristol Bay
zone including King Salmon and Iliamna on the dry side until late
morning on Monday when the front really begins to dissipate and
downsloping ends. As the remnants of the front and associated
upper level trough shift eastward, snowfall is expected to taper
off from west to east although a few scattered snow showers are
possible through Tuesday night before high pressure settles into
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An area of low pressure west of the Pribilof Islands will continue
to move northeastward toward Saint Matthew Island tonight. As it
does so, it will continue to drive a warm front across the eastern
Bering Sea and allow the Pribilof Islands to warm up as snow
changes to or mixes with rain before ultimately ending later
tonight. Following the front, a showery pattern will reside across
the Bering Sea through Monday before high pressure builds across
the area on Tuesday. This high pressure will be short lived across
the western Bering Sea as an area of low pressure moves southwest
of Shemya late Tuesday. This will bring storm force winds and another
shot of rain and snow to the western Bering Sea late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging over the eastern Bering mid week will expand over mainland
Alaska where it looks to reside through much of the weekend. This
setup will keep much of the active weather south of the mainland
over places like the Aleutians and Bering. The systems moving over
the Aleutians and Bering during this time will come from the south
bringing warmer air and rain to the area.

The biggest question mark is with the system moving over the
Western and Central Aleutians Tuesday into Wednesday. Even with
the warm air advection associated with this system there is still
potential for winds to reach near warning level as the front
passes. The most critical time will be late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves across the islands.
However, at this time there is too much disagreement amongst
models and not enough support for winds to reach warning level.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory...155 161. MARINE...Storm
Warning...155 178 Gale warning...130 131 132 150 160 165 170 172
177 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK