Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

297 
FZAK62 PAFC 310003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311415-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 984 MB LOW AT 64N
174W EXITS NORTH TO THE CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH TUE. A FRONT
ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST BERING TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
BERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 54N 163E AT 959 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-311415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 25 FT BUILDING TO 23
TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 TO 32 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ412-311415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-311415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 29 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-311415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

039 
FZAK62 PAFC 311259
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010230-
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT...THEN
REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 52N 166E AT 957
MB TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-010230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT BUILDING TO 17 TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT BUILDING TO 13 TO
24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
359 AM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 18
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

626 
FZAK62 PAFC 010006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011415-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT...THEN
REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THU.
THE ASSOCIATED 961 MB LOW NEAR 49N 166E MOVES INLAND OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 TO 28 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT S 10 KT W OF 177W. SEAS
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

374 
FZAK62 PAFC 011242
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020215-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A STRONG FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU AND BEGINS
MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 TO 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 TO 22 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

324 
FZAK62 PAFC 020029
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021430-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A STRONG FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU AND BEGINS
MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ411-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING
FOG.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKST Sun Jan 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level longwave trough remains over the western Bering
sea bringing in southwest flow aloft over the Bering Sea. The
Upper level ridge to the east of the trough is fairly weak and
situated over Bristol Bay. It is causing enough subsidence to
bring in some locally dense fog along the coast. A strong
shortwave trough is moving over Kodiak Island and the southern
half of Cook Inlet as it heads toward Prince William Sound this
evening. This has been the source of the occasionally heavy snow
showers in the Kachemak Bay area today.
Another short wave over the Copper river basin has brought some
snowfall there as well today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The most significant near-term model item is the movement of the
upper level wave through the Cook Inlet region and into Prince
William Sound. Overnight model runs were mostly bringing this
system south of the Kenai Peninsula except for just clipping the
kachemak Bay area, but the track today has been farther northward
which seems to be caught by the 18Z model runs of the GFS and NAM
models. The low in the Bering Sea remains a complex low with
multiple centers, but most of the energy has consolidated into two
main centers which are being resolved much better than they were
yesterday. This has increased confidence in the Winter Weather
Advisories in effect for Southwest mainland Alaska. The system
moving into Southcentral Alaska Tuesday has some subtle
differences between the models that will be the difference
between the precipitation downsloping on the leeward side of the
Kenai and Chugach mountains and those areas getting another shot
of snowfall before the warm upper level ridge builds over the
mainland part of the state for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...some evening snow showers will be in the area which may
cause brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise the should be VFR
conditions through tomorrow.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave will track across the Gulf and Northern
Gulf Coast tonight, with some left over instability ahead of it
causing showery conditions mainly over the Gulf waters. An upper
level ridge and more stable conditions will quickly build in from
west to east behind the above mentioned short-wave, bringing a
brief break from the showery conditions along the Gulf coast
overnight tonight and into Monday morning.

By late Monday morning, precipitation will redevelop over the
areas surrounding the Northern Gulf and Cook Inlet region as
another system moves in from the west. This will initially be a
good set-up for strong low level southeasterly downsloping winds
along the Kenai and Chugach ranges. This will keep areas on the
lee side of the ranges mostly dry, while coastal areas and the
western Susitna Valley will likely see quite a bit of precip with
deep southerly flow from the sub-tropics. However, models are
beginning to show a slightly more southerly component to the
winds, which can result in some precipitation making it over the
mountains. Currently we are expecting little to no snow
accumulation on the lee side of the Kenai and Chugach mountains,
which is subject to change if models continue to trend toward a
more southerly flow pattern. Confidence is high with regards to
the cold air feeding in behind this system and hindering any
significant warm-up. This will keep precipitation mainly as snow,
with rain likely relegated to Kodiak Island and portions of the
Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front continues to move across the eastern Bering Sea
toward Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Within the next several
hours, winds should begin to ramp up along the western capes of
the Bristol Bay zone and coastal locations of the Kuskokwim Delta
as the front approaches. Shortly after the winds arrive, snowfall
will begin to fall which will create blowing snow concerns across
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta coastline as moderate to heavy snow
combines with the wind to create visibilities as low as one half
of a mile. Inland locations of the Kuskokwim Delta will see some
snowfall but the bulk of the snow will fall along the coastline
where 2-5 inches of new snowfall is expected. Higher snow amounts
are expected in the Bristol Bay area north and west of Dillingham
(in the vicinity of the Ahklun Mountains) where 4-8 inches are
expected and some higher amounts may be possible depending on how
long snowfall upslope toward the higher terrain.

The front will quickly dissipate on Monday as it moves inland
with precipitation struggling to move further inland. Current
thoughts are that downsloping will keep a chunk of the Bristol Bay
zone including King Salmon and Iliamna on the dry side until late
morning on Monday when the front really begins to dissipate and
downsloping ends. As the remnants of the front and associated
upper level trough shift eastward, snowfall is expected to taper
off from west to east although a few scattered snow showers are
possible through Tuesday night before high pressure settles into
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An area of low pressure west of the Pribilof Islands will continue
to move northeastward toward Saint Matthew Island tonight. As it
does so, it will continue to drive a warm front across the eastern
Bering Sea and allow the Pribilof Islands to warm up as snow
changes to or mixes with rain before ultimately ending later
tonight. Following the front, a showery pattern will reside across
the Bering Sea through Monday before high pressure builds across
the area on Tuesday. This high pressure will be short lived across
the western Bering Sea as an area of low pressure moves southwest
of Shemya late Tuesday. This will bring storm force winds and another
shot of rain and snow to the western Bering Sea late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging over the eastern Bering mid week will expand over mainland
Alaska where it looks to reside through much of the weekend. This
setup will keep much of the active weather south of the mainland
over places like the Aleutians and Bering. The systems moving over
the Aleutians and Bering during this time will come from the south
bringing warmer air and rain to the area.

The biggest question mark is with the system moving over the
Western and Central Aleutians Tuesday into Wednesday. Even with
the warm air advection associated with this system there is still
potential for winds to reach near warning level as the front
passes. The most critical time will be late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves across the islands.
However, at this time there is too much disagreement amongst
models and not enough support for winds to reach warning level.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory...155 161. MARINE...Storm
Warning...155 178 Gale warning...130 131 132 150 160 165 170 172
177 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK