Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

154 
FZAK52 PAFC 301250
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310215-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 978 
MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL EXITS NORTH TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
TONIGHT. A 985 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WEAKENS TO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TODAY. A FRONT
ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST PUSHES INLAND
TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST BERING TONIGHT AND MOVES
TO THE CENTRAL BERING TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-310215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND W...S
WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING
TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-310215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 27
FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT S 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-310215-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-310215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING. E OF COLD BAY...S WIND 40 KT
BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES THROUGH MIDDAY E OF COLD BAY. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-310215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-310215-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY EARLY EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-310215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-310215-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-310215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-310215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-310215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-310215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY EARLY MORNING. 
SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ178-310215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ179-310215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-310215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-310215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-310215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E...W WIND 25
KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKST Sun Jan 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Several troughs rotating around an upper level low centered near
the Bering Strait are impacting the area this morning. One trough,
located near Prince William Sound, is swinging inland across the
northern Gulf Coast, while a second is tracking along the Alaska
Peninsula and into the western Gulf. Thunderstorms embedded in the
leading edge of the area of enhanced snow showers associated with
the second trough have been bringing lightning to Kodiak Island,
Shelikof Strait and the western Gulf this morning. In between the
two troughs, a small transient ridge is building into Southcentral
Alaska.

Out west, a vertically stacked low is located north of Shemya with
an associated front stretching across the western and central
Bering. A developing frontal wave is in the process of crossing
the Aleutian chain just to the west of Adak, with an associated
strong frontal system pushing east through central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement. Some small differences
exist in the handling of the upper level trough swinging through
the western Gulf today. While all the models take the small
associated surface low on a similar track up Shelikof Strait and
then along southeastern Kenai coast, the Canadian takes a small
secondary trough up the western Kenai Peninsula brushing through
the Anchorage area and Matanuska Valley. The consequences of this
solution being correct would be some additional scattered snow
showers further inland, however given that it is the only model
suggesting this it was deemed an outlier.

Forecast challenges for the western domain include the timing of
the front coming in from the west as well as how fast the south to
southeasterly flow ahead of it warms temperatures...thus impacting
the likelihood and magnitude of snow and blowing snow concerns for
southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Some patchy fog is possible through early afternoon as mid
and high level clouds break up in response to a small ridge
building over the area but otherwise expect VFR conditions to
persist through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A neutrally tilted trough along the Alaska Peninsula this morning
will march eastward across the Gulf today through tonight, taking
on a slight negative tilt as it enters the western Gulf this morning.
Instability is quite impressive out ahead of it, as indicated by
cold cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery and recent lightning
strikes near Kodiak Island. 12Z sounding from Kodiak also shows
lapse rates around 9 degrees C/km for much of the column. Thus,
expect moderate to heavy showers right out ahead of the strongest
part of the upper short-wave.

It is quite difficult to pinpoint the track of these showers as
indicated by the differences in model guidance. Based on latest
trends in satellite and in guidance, there is increasing
confidence that some of the heaviest and more widespread showers
will track along Shelikof Strait this morning up to the southern
Kenai Peninsula this afternoon and then over to Cordova this
evening. Snow accumulation will vary significantly across small
distances, depending on where showers track, but on average expect
around 2 inches snow accumulation with locally higher amounts.
Visibility may drop to half mile or less in heavier showers.

An upper level ridge will build in behind the trough, but dry
weather will be short-lived as a front approaches from the Bering
Sea Monday through Monday Night. This will be a good set-up for
strong low level southeasterly downsloping winds along the Kenai
and Chugach ranges. This will keep areas in the lee mostly dry
while coastal areas and the western Susitna Valley will likely
see quite a bit of precip with deep southerly flow from the sub-
tropics. Cold air feeding into the back side of this system means
there will not be a significant warm-up. Thus, precip will fall
mainly as snow, with rain likely relegated to Kodiak Island and
portions of the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Southwest Alaska region has a weak shortwave moving through
this morning which is producing some light snow showers in the
Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay region. Meanwhile, the next
major synoptic feature is a weather front approaching the
Southwest Alaska coastline by Sunday evening. This will result in
blowing snow issues accompanied by moderate to heavy snowfall as
the frontal boundary moves inland before exiting the region by
Monday morning. The strongest southeasterly winds and snowfall
will occur along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline and along the
Western Capes northward extending through the Ahklun Mountains.
Since we have cold air in place over the Kuskokwim Delta region,
this should keep the warm air advection at bay just long enough
for the occurrence of the blowing snow phenomena. Therefore, a
Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow was issued this morning
for the Kuskokwim Delta region west of Bethel.

The warmer air upstream will modify the air mass resulting in
temperatures reaching in the upper 30s for the Kuskokwim Delta
interior. As the aforementioned front moves through the Bristol
Bay region the temperatures are warmer along the coast, but cooler
air is in the interior. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory for
Snow was issued north and west of Dillingham after midnight
tonight through Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves
through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The storm force low is tracking into the southern Bering Sea this
morning. The satellite imagery is showing a huge comma cloud over
the Central Aleutians with moisture streaming northward into the
Bering Sea. This will bring a strong push of warmer temperatures
to the Central/Eastern Aleutians northward into the Bering as the
low tracks into the northern Bering by Sunday evening. This will
bring gale to storm force southerly winds along the Central/Eastern
Aleutians with strong gusty gap winds out of the bays and passes
through Monday as the front moves eastward. By Monday the majority
of the Bering/Aleutians will have westerly flow accompanied by a
showery weather regime. By late Monday evening the next storm
force low tracks south of the Western Aleutians with the
associated weather front approaching the aforementioned region.
This results in a significant warm-up along the Western Aleutians
spreading northward into the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A front near the AKpen will decay over the Aleutian Range and
southcentral AK Mon night into Tue. In the process it will bring
snow to both sides of the Aleutian Range, the Alaska Range north
to Denali, as well as the Kenai and Chugach mountains. Out west a
fast moving storm force front will move into the western Bering,
with snow changing to rain on Tue over the western Aleutians.

By early Wed the Bering front reaches eastern Russia, with gales
and storm force winds slowly diminishing over the region into the
weekend. The front in the east decays into a trough along the
north Gulf coast, with precipitation diminishing to showers
through the week. High pressure will build across mainland AK
through the week. Warm air over the Bering cools by midweek,
while cold air associated with the mainland high becomes more
entrenched over Southcentral through the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
 		 Storm Warning 170 172 173 174 176.
 		 Gale Warning 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DS