Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak area of surface low pressure currently located over central
Oklahoma this afternoon with quasi-stationary boundary located
further north near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. With a few breaks
in the cloud cover, atmosphere has become moderately unstable
with lifted indices from -5 to -7 deg C southwest of Tulsa. Low
level moisture convergence continues northeast of surface low near
the interstate 44 corridor. With limited cap present, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near aforementioned
area by mid/late afternoon with the threat for heavy rainfall and
to a lesser extent damaging downburst winds. In addition, slightly
backed surface winds/modest deep layer shear and low LCL heights
would suggest that the chance for a brief tornado is not zero, but
will likely remain very low.

Main threat this evening into the overnight hours will be the
potential for heavy rainfall/flash flooding as multiple
thunderstorm clusters move across much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A flash flood watch remains in effect through
tonight for much of the area and flash flood guidance remains
relatively low from the previous rainfall. The heavier rainfall is
expected to shift east of the region Monday morning with only a
few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms across far southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas monday afternoon.

Focus will quickly shift to the excessive heat potential Tuesday
through the remainder of the week as large upper ridge builds
over the southern plains. High temperatures in the upper 90s will
be common across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees in some
locations. A heat advisory will likely be required for at least
portions of the area during this time as afternoon dewpoints
become a little more certain. Limited precipitation chances
return by Friday into next weekend a weak northwest flow aloft
develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  77  96 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   74  90  76  96 /  80  40  10  10
MLC   74  90  77  94 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   67  88  71  96 /  60  10  10  10
FYV   72  85  70  93 /  90  40  10  10
BYV   71  85  71  93 /  80  50  10  10
MKO   73  90  74  93 /  90  20  10  10
MIO   70  86  73  95 /  60  20  10  10
F10   73  90  76  93 /  90  10  10  10
HHW   74  92  76  93 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
429 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.TORNADO.
    RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO NOTABLE RISES ON A FEW AREA
RIVERS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY MONDAY
EVENING.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE PREVALENT BEGINNING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ057-032230-
CRAIG OK-
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CRAIG COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF
WHITE OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
WELCH...                          BLUEJACKET...
PYRAMID CORNERS...                HOLLOW...
CENTRAILIA...                     CENTRALIA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 291 AND 293.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3675 9500 3668 9500 3667 9543 3687 9543
      3697 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 245DEG 21KT 3679 9528

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ054>057-061-032300-
ROGERS OK-CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
525 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROGERS...EAST CENTRAL
OSAGE...NOWATA...WASHINGTON AND CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF LENAPAH TO 6 MILES WEST OF NOWATA TO 2
MILES SOUTH OF OCHELATA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BARTLESVILLE...                   VINITA...
NOWATA...                         DEWEY...
CHELSEA...                        OOLOGAH...
WELCH...                          RAMONA...
OCHELATA...                       DELAWARE...
BLUEJACKET...                     AVANT...
LENAPAH...                        TALALA...
VERA...                           NEW ALLUWE...
WHITE OAK...                      WATOVA...
PYRAMID CORNERS...                CENTRAILIA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 284 AND 292.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3697 9504 3695 9500 3667 9501
      3642 9577 3643 9607 3681 9600 3700 9556
      3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 257DEG 20KT 3684 9550 3672 9575 3656 9597

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ054-059-032300-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHIDLER TO 5 MILES WEST OF
RALSTON TO 3 MILES EAST OF GLENCOE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       PAWNEE...
HOMINY...                         CLEVELAND...
FAIRFAX...                        SHIDLER...
WYNONA...                         JENNINGS...
RALSTON...                        WESTPORT...
OSAGE...                          BURBANK...
HALLETT...                        BLACKBURN...
TERLTON...                        MARAMEC...
SKEDEE...                         PEARSONIA...
BIGHEART...                       APPERSON...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3650 9703 3653 9700 3656 9689 3658 9689
      3660 9691 3659 9695 3678 9679 3678 9675
      3679 9675 3697 9618 3617 9631 3617 9682
      3625 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 248DEG 22KT 3670 9661 3649 9683 3624 9686

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ060-064-032315-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
544 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND WEST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 544 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF TERLTON TO 2 MILES EAST OF DRUMRIGHT
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVERY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BRISTOW...                        MANNFORD...
DRUMRIGHT...                      OILTON...
DEPEW...                          SHAMROCK...
KEYSTONE STATE PARK...            SILVER CITY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 200.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3616 9662 3616 9625 3586 9628 3577 9651
      3576 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 262DEG 21KT 3612 9648 3598 9655 3584 9666

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ056-057-061-032345-
ROGERS OK-CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
556 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROGERS...NOWATA AND
CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 555 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LENAPAH TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WATOVA TO 5 MILES WEST OF TALALA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
VINITA...                         NOWATA...
CHELSEA...                        OOLOGAH...
DELAWARE...                       LENAPAH...
TALALA...                         NEW ALLUWE...
WHITE OAK...                      WATOVA...
PYRAMID CORNERS...                CENTRAILIA...
HOLLOW...                         CENTRALIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3663 9514 3651 9540 3651 9543 3649 9544
      3641 9579 3642 9580 3642 9581 3690 9580
      3700 9552 3700 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 252DEG 23KT 3682 9555 3663 9562 3653 9580