Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 3, 2016Craig County, Ottawa County, Rogers County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 3, 2016, 3:17 AM CDT for Craig County, Ottawa County, Rogers County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2016, 3:17 AM CDT (08:17 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2016, 4:00 AM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Craig County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1126 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1072 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 4.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 2, 11:51 PM CDT, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 11:51 PM CDT, 3 hours 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
late tonight and Sunday morning, and again late Sunday afternoon
and evening. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 937 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Convection remained ongoing the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles through
Kansas and across much of Missouri this evening in response to a
nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the region.
Also...a broken line of convection that developed along a surface
boundary this afternoon was progressing east northeast across
Northern Texas and Southwest Oklahoma this evening. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear to mostly cloudy
skies from south to north were common.

Overnight tonight...the eastern half of the frontal boundary...
is expected to begin to slowly lift northward with the western
half sagging southeast as a surface low over the Texas Panhandle
lifts northeast. As the western half of the front shifts
southeastward...a strengthening low level jet is forecast to push
into the region. These features will allow for some of the ongoing
convection across the Panhandles and Southern Kansas to possibly
push into Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late tonight.
Since the CWA will remain south of the frontal boundaries...enough
instability could remain overnight to create an isolated severe
potential with locally damaging winds possible.

The ongoing convection across Southeast Oklahoma has pushed away
from the surface boundary that it had developed along this
afternoon. However...little weakening had occurred as it was
riding/stay up with its gust front/cold pool. Latest hrrr and
local in-house model indicate this convection decreasing in
intensity with the loss of daytime heating the further east it
moves. Though...based on current trends have extended slight pops
into Southeast Oklahoma...mainly west of the Indian Nations
Turnpike for just-in- case this convection makes it this far east
late tonight.

Also overnight...increasing cloud cover and dewpoints holding in
the 60s/low 70s should aid in low temps near to slightly warmer
compared to this mornings lows. For the evening update...have
adjusted pops southward some based on the mentioned above and also
made minor tweaks to hourly temp...sky and dewpoint grids based
on current trends and as cloud cover moves into the region
tonight.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 9:46 PM CDT, 5 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
946 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS APPROACH
THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH THE GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AGAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...AS WELL AS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL...
	     HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE PREVALENT BEGINNING
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 3:17 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ055>058-061>063-030900-
ROGERS OK-CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-MAYES OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MAYES...NORTHERN
ROGERS...OTTAWA...SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 317 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHETOPA TO 7 MILES NORTH OF NEW
ALLUWE TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAMONA. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MIAMI...                          VINITA...
GROVE...                          COMMERCE...
CHELSEA...                        OOLOGAH...
FAIRLAND...                       AFTON...
QUAPAW...                         LANGLEY...
ADAIR...                          WELCH...
BERNICE...                        KETCHUM...
FOYIL...                          BLUEJACKET...
WYANDOTTE...                      DISNEY...
TALALA...                         BIG CABIN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3679 9462 3652 9493 3631 9540
      3642 9579 3642 9582 3647 9600 3673 9553
      3700 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 293DEG 31KT 3696 9514 3672 9548 3649 9598

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 3:39 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Haskell and 14 more	27 hr
Jul 3, 3:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers	48 min
Jul 3, 3:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	29 min
Jul 3, 3:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	31 min
Jul 3, 4:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	34 min
Jul 3, 4:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	31 min
Jul 3, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	46 min
Jul 3, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Washington	6 hr
Jul 3, 4:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	36 min
Jul 3, 5:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	29 min
Jul 3, 5:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	37 min
Jul 3, 5:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	5 hr
Jul 3, 5:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Washington	35 min
Jul 3, 5:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	31 min
Jul 3, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	31 min
Jul 3, 5:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata	49 min
Jul 3, 6:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	45 min
Jul 3, 6:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	47 min
Jul 3, 6:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	5 hr
Jul 3, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	16 min
Jul 3, 6:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	33 min
Jul 3, 8:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	113 min
Jul 3, 10:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	2 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.