Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 3, 2016Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 3, 2016, 4:11 PM CDT for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2016, 4:11 PM CDT (21:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1279 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 859 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.3
Supercell composite: 9.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 3, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak area of surface low pressure currently located over central
Oklahoma this afternoon with quasi-stationary boundary located
further north near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. With a few breaks
in the cloud cover, atmosphere has become moderately unstable
with lifted indices from -5 to -7 deg C southwest of Tulsa. Low
level moisture convergence continues northeast of surface low near
the interstate 44 corridor. With limited cap present, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near aforementioned
area by mid/late afternoon with the threat for heavy rainfall and
to a lesser extent damaging downburst winds. In addition, slightly
backed surface winds/modest deep layer shear and low LCL heights
would suggest that the chance for a brief tornado is not zero, but
will likely remain very low.

Main threat this evening into the overnight hours will be the
potential for heavy rainfall/flash flooding as multiple
thunderstorm clusters move across much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A flash flood watch remains in effect through
tonight for much of the area and flash flood guidance remains
relatively low from the previous rainfall. The heavier rainfall is
expected to shift east of the region Monday morning with only a
few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms across far southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas monday afternoon.

Focus will quickly shift to the excessive heat potential Tuesday
through the remainder of the week as large upper ridge builds
over the southern plains. High temperatures in the upper 90s will
be common across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees in some
locations. A heat advisory will likely be required for at least
portions of the area during this time as afternoon dewpoints
become a little more certain. Limited precipitation chances
return by Friday into next weekend a weak northwest flow aloft
develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  77  96 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   74  90  76  96 /  80  40  10  10
MLC   74  90  77  94 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   67  88  71  96 /  60  10  10  10
FYV   72  85  70  93 /  90  40  10  10
BYV   71  85  71  93 /  80  50  10  10
MKO   73  90  74  93 /  90  20  10  10
MIO   70  86  73  95 /  60  20  10  10
F10   73  90  76  93 /  90  10  10  10
HHW   74  92  76  93 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 12:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 3:46 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 3, 3:59 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ056-057-032130-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA AND WEST
CENTRAL CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF
NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
DELAWARE...                       CENTRAILIA...
CENTRALIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3661 9555 3677 9565 3691 9541 3670 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 238DEG 18KT 3671 9553

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 4:11 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ054-059-032145-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND EASTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF RALSTON TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARAMEC. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PAWHUSKA...                       PAWNEE...
HOMINY...                         CLEVELAND...
FAIRFAX...                        WYNONA...
JENNINGS...                       RALSTON...
OSAGE...                          HALLETT...
BLACKBURN...                      TERLTON...
MARAMEC...                        SKEDEE...
PERSHING...                       NELAGONEY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3657 9675 3681 9619 3619 9636 3616 9665
      3616 9682 3619 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 241DEG 17KT 3652 9665 3621 9673

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 3:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa, Rogers	43 min
Jul 3, 3:39 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Haskell and 14 more	27 hr
Jul 3, 3:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers	48 min
Jul 3, 3:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	29 min
Jul 3, 3:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	31 min
Jul 3, 4:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	31 min
Jul 3, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	46 min
Jul 3, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Washington	6 hr
Jul 3, 4:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	36 min
Jul 3, 5:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	29 min
Jul 3, 5:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	37 min
Jul 3, 5:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	5 hr
Jul 3, 5:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Washington	35 min
Jul 3, 5:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	31 min
Jul 3, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	31 min
Jul 3, 5:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata	49 min
Jul 3, 6:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	45 min
Jul 3, 6:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	47 min
Jul 3, 6:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	5 hr
Jul 3, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	16 min
Jul 3, 6:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	33 min
Jul 3, 8:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	113 min
Jul 3, 10:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	2 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.