Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 3, 2016Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 3, 2016, 3:46 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 3, 2016, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
Expired
Jul 3, 2016, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
29 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK

County Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-07-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1279 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-07-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 194 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1279 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
859 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.3
Supercell composite
9.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 3, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak area of surface low pressure currently located over central
Oklahoma this afternoon with quasi-stationary boundary located
further north near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. With a few breaks
in the cloud cover, atmosphere has become moderately unstable
with lifted indices from -5 to -7 deg C southwest of Tulsa. Low
level moisture convergence continues northeast of surface low near
the interstate 44 corridor. With limited cap present, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near aforementioned
area by mid/late afternoon with the threat for heavy rainfall and
to a lesser extent damaging downburst winds. In addition, slightly
backed surface winds/modest deep layer shear and low LCL heights
would suggest that the chance for a brief tornado is not zero, but
will likely remain very low.

Main threat this evening into the overnight hours will be the
potential for heavy rainfall/flash flooding as multiple
thunderstorm clusters move across much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A flash flood watch remains in effect through
tonight for much of the area and flash flood guidance remains
relatively low from the previous rainfall. The heavier rainfall is
expected to shift east of the region Monday morning with only a
few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms across far southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas monday afternoon.

Focus will quickly shift to the excessive heat potential Tuesday
through the remainder of the week as large upper ridge builds
over the southern plains. High temperatures in the upper 90s will
be common across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees in some
locations. A heat advisory will likely be required for at least
portions of the area during this time as afternoon dewpoints
become a little more certain. Limited precipitation chances
return by Friday into next weekend a weak northwest flow aloft
develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  77  96 /  70  10  10  10
FSM   74  90  76  96 /  80  40  10  10
MLC   74  90  77  94 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   67  88  71  96 /  60  10  10  10
FYV   72  85  70  93 /  90  40  10  10
BYV   71  85  71  93 /  80  50  10  10
MKO   73  90  74  93 /  90  20  10  10
MIO   70  86  73  95 /  60  20  10  10
F10   73  90  76  93 /  90  10  10  10
HHW   74  92  76  93 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 12:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 3:46 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 3:17 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Ottawa, Rogers43 min
Jul 3, 3:39 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchTSAAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Haskell and 14 more27 hr
Jul 3, 3:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSADelaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers48 min
Jul 3, 3:59 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSANowata31 min
Jul 3, 4:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOsage, Pawnee34 min
Jul 3, 4:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig31 min
Jul 3, 4:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOsage, Pawnee, Washington46 min
Jul 3, 4:47 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSANowata, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Washington6 hr
Jul 3, 4:54 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAPawnee36 min
Jul 3, 5:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig29 min
Jul 3, 5:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek37 min
Jul 3, 5:16 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACraig, Nowata5 hr
Jul 3, 5:25 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Nowata, Washington35 min
Jul 3, 5:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOsage, Pawnee31 min
Jul 3, 5:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek31 min
Jul 3, 5:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Nowata49 min
Jul 3, 6:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOsage45 min
Jul 3, 6:13 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek47 min
Jul 3, 6:28 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACraig, Mayes, Rogers5 hr
Jul 3, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Okfuskee16 min
Jul 3, 6:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek33 min
Jul 3, 8:52 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSABenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington113 min
Jul 3, 10:41 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSABenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington2 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.