Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tulsa, OK

235 
WWUS54 KTSA 142052
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

OKC077-079-127-142102-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-160714T2100Z/
LE FLORE OK-LATIMER OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
352 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LE FLORE...SOUTHEASTERN
LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3450 9578 3451 9567 3457 9567 3462 9541
      3479 9508 3512 9474 3497 9444 3451 9447
      3451 9504 3425 9505 3424 9515 3416 9515
      3416 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 291DEG 26KT 3502 9475 3477 9501 3460 9534 3453
9571

$$

LACY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Earlier update increased precip chances for most locations based
on organizing MCS and likelihood it will be persist eastward.
Instability has recovered substantially in wake of the early
morning convection and expectations are that severe weather
potential will increase through the day as the ongoing storms
become nearer sfc based. Prior to the convection temps are on
track and any later update would be to cool temps once the
convection influences an area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  70  89  72 /  90  80  40  30
FSM   94  72  90  73 /  80  70  40  30
MLC   95  72  91  73 /  70  60  40  30
BVO   92  67  88  69 /  90  80  30  30
FYV   90  68  86  67 /  80  80  40  30
BYV   90  68  86  67 /  80  80  40  30
MKO   94  71  90  72 /  90  80  40  30
MIO   91  68  88  70 /  90  70  30  30
F10   95  71  91  73 /  80  70  40  30
HHW   96  74  95  73 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
809 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...BEFORE NOON...INCREASING DURING AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE GROWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
EVENTUALLY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
LARGE STORM COMPLEXES...AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONDITIONS DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE.  SEVERAL DATA SOURCES INDICATE
LOCALIZED INTENSE WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 MPH WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX.
WHILE MANY LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY DRY...THE INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FINALLY...HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
THAT ARE NOT AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 105 DEGREES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
07/14/2016                   CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE TO TREES INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE
            LAYING ON A HOUSE. PHOTOS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND
            ADDITIONAL REPORTS FROM BROADCAST MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED.

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
07/14/2016                   MUSKOGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AT A SHOPPING CENTER IN MUSKOGEE.
            NUMEROUS PHOTOS SEEN ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND ON TELEVISION.
            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARTSHORNE              34.85N 95.56W
07/14/2016  E60.00 MPH       PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT LEAST 60 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED IN HARTSHORNE. RELAYED BY
            LE FLORE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAGONER                 35.96N 95.37W
07/14/2016                   WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            POWER POLES DOWNED IN WAGONER. PHOTOS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
07/14/2016                   PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWNED. PHOTO RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
07/14/2016                   SEQUOYAH           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF OFF BUSINESS. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
07/14/2016                   SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE TALIHINA           34.71N 95.00W
07/14/2016  M58 MPH          LE FLORE           OK   MESONET

&&

JBM