Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Earlier update increased precip chances for most locations based
on organizing MCS and likelihood it will be persist eastward.
Instability has recovered substantially in wake of the early
morning convection and expectations are that severe weather
potential will increase through the day as the ongoing storms
become nearer sfc based. Prior to the convection temps are on
track and any later update would be to cool temps once the
convection influences an area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  70  89  72 /  90  80  40  30
FSM   94  72  90  73 /  80  70  40  30
MLC   95  72  91  73 /  70  60  40  30
BVO   92  67  88  69 /  90  80  30  30
FYV   90  68  86  67 /  80  80  40  30
BYV   90  68  86  67 /  80  80  40  30
MKO   94  71  90  72 /  90  80  40  30
MIO   91  68  88  70 /  90  70  30  30
F10   95  71  91  73 /  80  70  40  30
HHW   96  74  95  73 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
809 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...BEFORE NOON...INCREASING DURING AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE GROWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
EVENTUALLY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
LARGE STORM COMPLEXES...AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONDITIONS DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE.  SEVERAL DATA SOURCES INDICATE
LOCALIZED INTENSE WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 MPH WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX.
WHILE MANY LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY DRY...THE INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FINALLY...HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
THAT ARE NOT AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 105 DEGREES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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