Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Coverage of overnight convection looking to be more isolated than
earlier thought, with the most concentrated area likely to remain
west of the NE OK terminals. Will keep VCTS to open the
BVO/TUL/RVS TAF due to isolated cells that have developed within
the past hour just S of the KS border. Best chance of TSRA at any
of the terminals will be NE OK and far NW AR late afternoon and
into the evening hours tomorrow along the front. Will carry
prevailing MVFR conditions at NE OK terminals during the evening
hours tomorrow due to thunderstorm expectations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 932 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Supercell continues across northern sections of Kay
county this evening...with our forecast area remaining
precipitation-free so far. 25-30kt southwesterly low-level
jet per area VWP would favor a continued southward
movement...along with renewed convection along western
flank of ongoing activity. Confidence on how much convection
eventually works into our region overnight is quite low
with a myriad of solutions offered up from most recent
NAM/HRRR and HRRRX.

For now have increase PoPs some across northwestern sections
of the forecast area...but will leave PoP untouched beyond
06z at this time. Any activity that may eventually work into
the forecast area would pose mainly a wind threat for at least
the next several hours.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM INTO OVERNIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOCUSED
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
HOT AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1036 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

OKZ054-059-140415-
PAWNEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1036 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1034 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PONCA CITY...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN KAW LAKE...

THIS STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM MAY BE BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DUE SOUTH...AND IF THIS
CONTINUES...WARNINGS COULD BECOME NECESSARY. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3669 9700 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3645 9673 3644 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704
      3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 339DEG 15KT 3669 9708

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

OKZ060-061-064-067-140645-
ROGERS OK-CREEK OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

AT 1259 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWASSO TO 3 MILES EAST OF SAND
SPRINGS TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEYSTONE STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
SAND SPRINGS...                   OWASSO...
BIXBY...                          SAPULPA...
JENKS...                          GLENPOOL...
COWETA...                         CATOOSA...
MANNFORD...                       SPERRY...
TURLEY...                         ONETA...
KEYSTONE STATE PARK...            GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 210 AND 238.

LAT...LON 3616 9637 3616 9600 3628 9600 3634 9593
      3611 9560 3592 9574 3597 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 312DEG 24KT 3624 9588 3614 9604 3617 9623