Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Coverage of overnight convection looking to be more isolated than
earlier thought, with the most concentrated area likely to remain
west of the NE OK terminals. Will keep VCTS to open the
BVO/TUL/RVS TAF due to isolated cells that have developed within
the past hour just S of the KS border. Best chance of TSRA at any
of the terminals will be NE OK and far NW AR late afternoon and
into the evening hours tomorrow along the front. Will carry
prevailing MVFR conditions at NE OK terminals during the evening
hours tomorrow due to thunderstorm expectations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 932 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Supercell continues across northern sections of Kay
county this evening...with our forecast area remaining
precipitation-free so far. 25-30kt southwesterly low-level
jet per area VWP would favor a continued southward
movement...along with renewed convection along western
flank of ongoing activity. Confidence on how much convection
eventually works into our region overnight is quite low
with a myriad of solutions offered up from most recent
NAM/HRRR and HRRRX.

For now have increase PoPs some across northwestern sections
of the forecast area...but will leave PoP untouched beyond
06z at this time. Any activity that may eventually work into
the forecast area would pose mainly a wind threat for at least
the next several hours.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM INTO OVERNIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOCUSED
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
HOT AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

OKZ060-061-064-067-140645-
ROGERS OK-CREEK OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

AT 1259 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWASSO TO 3 MILES EAST OF SAND
SPRINGS TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEYSTONE STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          BROKEN ARROW...
SAND SPRINGS...                   OWASSO...
BIXBY...                          SAPULPA...
JENKS...                          GLENPOOL...
COWETA...                         CATOOSA...
MANNFORD...                       SPERRY...
TURLEY...                         ONETA...
KEYSTONE STATE PARK...            GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 210 AND 238.

LAT...LON 3616 9637 3616 9600 3628 9600 3634 9593
      3611 9560 3592 9574 3597 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 312DEG 24KT 3624 9588 3614 9604 3617 9623

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
208 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     HECTORVILLE             35.84N 95.93W
07/14/2016  M58 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
215 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BIXBY               35.94N 95.90W
07/14/2016  M66 MPH          TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W CHECOTAH            35.47N 95.56W
07/14/2016  M59 MPH          MCINTOSH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 AM     HAIL             EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
07/14/2016  E0.75 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

OKZ049-073>076-140915-
PUSHMATAHA OK-PITTSBURG OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
321 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PITTSBURG...LE FLORE...
LATIMER...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 321 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF KEOTA TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF ROBBERS CAVE
STATE PARK TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STUART. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MCALESTER...                      POTEAU...
WILBURTON...                      STIGLER...
CLAYTON...                        HEAVENER...
HARTSHORNE...                     KREBS...
TALIHINA...                       WISTER...
HOWE...                           KIOWA...
SAVANNA...                        KEOTA...
RED OAK...                        MCCURTAIN...
BOKOSHE...                        FANSHAWE...
ALDERSON...                       KINTA...

LAT...LON 3452 9567 3459 9567 3459 9579 3465 9588
      3468 9589 3468 9593 3478 9609 3487 9609
      3498 9541 3534 9502 3504 9444 3460 9459
      3440 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 300DEG 33KT 3526 9502 3496 9532 3484 9606