Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Topeka, KS

191 
WWUS53 KTOP 100026
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC201-100035-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160510T0030Z/
WASHINGTON-
726 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9689 3989 9687 3987 9714 4000 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 166DEG 9KT 3996 9702 

$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
655 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Focus on next several hours of convection then on brief break Tues.

Severe storms will develop over the next few hours and impact much
of the area with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG with shear increasing from
NW to SE across our area from 25kts to around 45kts.  Expect mixed
modes of storms with all hazards in play.  Tornado risk appears
marginal but as usual non-zero given SE sfc flow.  Flooding and
heavy rains in local areas could actually end up being larger issue
is storms repeatedly move across same areas.

Although precip should exit by midnight the sfc low never does track
NE but instead re-develops across eastern CO as the next upper wave
approaches so look for continued SE sfc winds along with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tues but dry weather expected
at least for 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Upper trough moving across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring a cold front into eastern Kansas with the
models differing slightly with the speed. Showers and thunderstorms
look to develop and move into north central Kansas late Tuesday
evening and may hold off until after midnight. The upper trough axis
will move through eastern Kansas Wednesday night and will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with elevated instability and
cooler temps aloft with the upper trough. Northwest flow is expected
in the wake of the upper trough and continues through the weekend.
There are a number of waves that will move southeast out of Canada
across the area bringing a chance of showers and a few storms to the
area beginning Friday and off and on through next Monday. Best
chances for storms will be Friday then again on Sunday and Monday
where shear and instability will be favorable. Highs mainly in the
70s through Friday. A cold front moving through Friday night will
usher in cooler air for the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Storms continue to form and progress to the NNE. Possible that
timing adjustments may be off for TSRA, but shortly after 00Z at
KMHK certainly still appears reasonable. KTOP/KFOE may still see
storms around the 01Z time frame as movement may begin to pick up.
After around 04Z storms should clear the area to the east. Believe
that some early morning reduced VIS is likely considering light
winds and moist surface in play bringing MVFR conditions to all
sites. Increasing subsidence after 14Z should allow for clearing
skies and a complete VFR from there.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 2
AND 4PM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4PM AND 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             2 WNW LINN              39.70N 97.12W
05/09/2016  E2.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N GREEN               39.50N 97.00W
05/09/2016                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE AND STORM CHASER REPORTED SEEING A
            ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD FOR 5 MINUTES.
            THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             9 S GREENLEAF           39.60N 96.98W
05/09/2016  E2.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

            RANGE FROM GOLFBALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             2 E BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.59W
05/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW WASHINGTON        39.78N 97.14W
05/09/2016  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN 50-60 MPH

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             BELLEVILLE              39.82N 97.63W
05/09/2016  M1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

JP