Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

947 
WWUS53 KTOP 092245
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC117-161-201-092315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160509T2315Z/
WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-RILEY-
545 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN
RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RANDOLPH...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WEST
         OF RANDOLPH AT 540 PM. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUE RAPIDS AND RANDOLPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 9662 3947 9667 3948 9668 3946 9669
      3946 9671 3945 9672 3944 9671 3943 9673
      3942 9672 3941 9672 3940 9673 3938 9673
      3941 9688 3969 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 183DEG 23KT 3952 9681 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

GDP

838 
WWUS53 KTOP 092304
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC117-201-092312-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160509T2315Z/
WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-
604 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WILL STAY SOUTH
OF MARSHALL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM. THEREFORE THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  ANOTHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3940 9679 3941 9688 3957 9690 3957 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 186DEG 12KT 3945 9686 

$$

KSC161-092315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160509T2315Z/
RILEY-
604 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY...

AT 602 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RANDOLPH...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL NEAR
         LEONARDVILLE AT 550 PM. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3940 9679 3941 9688 3957 9690 3957 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 186DEG 12KT 3945 9686 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Focus on next several hours of convection then on brief break Tues.

Severe storms will develop over the next few hours and impact much
of the area with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG with shear increasing from
NW to SE across our area from 25kts to around 45kts.  Expect mixed
modes of storms with all hazards in play.  Tornado risk appears
marginal but as usual non-zero given SE sfc flow.  Flooding and
heavy rains in local areas could actually end up being larger issue
is storms repeatedly move across same areas.

Although precip should exit by midnight the sfc low never does track
NE but instead re-develops across eastern CO as the next upper wave
approaches so look for continued SE sfc winds along with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tues but dry weather expected
at least for 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Upper trough moving across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring a cold front into eastern Kansas with the
models differing slightly with the speed. Showers and thunderstorms
look to develop and move into north central Kansas late Tuesday
evening and may hold off until after midnight. The upper trough axis
will move through eastern Kansas Wednesday night and will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with elevated instability and
cooler temps aloft with the upper trough. Northwest flow is expected
in the wake of the upper trough and continues through the weekend.
There are a number of waves that will move southeast out of Canada
across the area bringing a chance of showers and a few storms to the
area beginning Friday and off and on through next Monday. Best
chances for storms will be Friday then again on Sunday and Monday
where shear and instability will be favorable. Highs mainly in the
70s through Friday. A cold front moving through Friday night will
usher in cooler air for the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Greatest challenge is timing of convection and impacts on TAFS.
For now will trend upward on CIGS with a tempo group late
afternoon and early evening to try and time thunderstorms.
T-storms should be out of the area by 4Z however confidence is low
on potential CIGS or VIS conds thereafter due to humid airmass and
light winds as low pressure remains stationary across KS. For now
have gone MVFR on CIGS and VIS conds with some risk for IFR.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 2
AND 4PM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4PM AND 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             LEONARDVILLE            39.36N 96.86W
05/09/2016  E0.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO JUST SMALLER THAN DIME HAIL ESTIMATED.

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
05/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

JP