Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Topeka, KS

590 
WWUS53 KTOP 090219
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSC059-139-090229-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-160509T0245Z/
FRANKLIN-OSAGE-
919 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3853 9570 3863 9579 3880 9552 3878 9550
      3874 9550 3874 9545 3864 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 235DEG 25KT 3867 9553 

$$

BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Persistent showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeast
across much of northeast and east central Kansas this afternoon as a
lead wave moved northeast into south central Kansas. The convection
has also stabilized the atmosphere across northeast Kansas with
latest mesoanalysis showing around 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE at
19Z. Surface analysis at 19Z places the dryline in southwest
Kansas with a surface low in northeast New Mexico. Stronger wave
was beginning to exit the base of the upper trough across the
Rockies and was moving into western Kansas. Low level jet was
backing more to the south this afternoon with the approach of the
wave, this will focus best moisture flux into central and eastern
Kansas this evening and overnight. Forcing for ascent will
continue through the evening across south central into northeast
Kansas as left exit region of 110 kt upper jet streak approaches
the area. Areas of north central and central Kansas where the
atmosphere has not been worked over should have the better chances
of severe storms this evening where instability is higher and mid
level lapse rates are steeper. Areas further east still have the
potential for isolated severe storms this evening and tonight.
Also additional storms are likely to develop in the vicinity and
north of the warm front near the Nebraska border. Hail and winds
will be the main hazards with a few tornadoes possible.

Monday the dryline mixes to the east into central Kansas in the
afternoon while the upper trough ejects to the northeast across the
Central Plains and takes a negative tilt as it does so. Shear is
around 25 to 35 kts in the late afternoon hours with around 1200 to
1800 J/kg of mixed layer cape. Forecast soundings showing the EML
weakening late in the afternoon and expect storms to fire in the
instability axis across the eastern half of the forecast area. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards and tornadoes will
also be possible with any supercell storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Monday Night through Wednesday...Upper trough digging SE into the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon is forecast to reach the central
rockies by 00 UTC Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper low centered over
southern Wyoming this afternoon lifts out reaching the northern
plains by 00 UTC Tuesday with a trough extending south through the
plains.  The upper trough over the central rockies continues to dig
southeast into the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. As it does, a
surface low should deepen over southeast Colorado by 00 UTC Wed and
then track east across Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday.  With
respect to the surface low, the 12 UTC GFS looks fast compared to
the 12 UTC ECMWF/NAM/Canadian and we based the forecast on the
consensus and did not the GFS.

As for the sensible weather, will forecast chance of thunderstorms
Monday night.  Severe weather parameters should decrease by Monday
evening with deep layer shear decreasing to less than 30 KTs.  On
Tuesday, northeast Kansas should be between systems and will
forecast dry weather. We are expecting more showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday associated with the second
upper trough and surface system.  The surface boundary may behave
like an inverted trough with much of the precipitation to the west
of the trough or post frontal. With this in mind, much of the
precipitation on Wednesday should be post frontal with the better
chances of severe weather east of the forecast area.

Wednesday night through Sunday, upper northwesterly flow will slowly
transition into a more zonal flow regime.  By Friday afternoon
several minor shortwaves translate through the flow, but with
moisture still off to the south, perhaps the best chance for any
significant rainfall will be late Friday into Saturday morning.  The
rest of the period suggests considerable variability at this point
with only slight chance POPs over the next weekend. Long term
guidance in good agreement that moisture will not be plentiful
outside of the weak return with a weak wave late Friday previously
mentioned.  Mainly mid level subsidence and generally stable
soundings after this suggest that perhaps some periods of showers
but likely mostly cloud cover will be the story with the zonal flow
in place suggests that baroclinicity will be at a premium.

Meanwhile, high temps and low temps will remain near normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Areas of scattered TSRA are expected to move in to the TOP and
FOE terminals shortly after 00Z. Additional scattered TSRA is
expected to develop over central Kansas and move eastward into all
terminals between 03Z and 06Z. These storms are forecast to have
MVFR conditions with ceilings falling to IFR within the heaviest
storms and after the activity passes and stratus deck lowers. IFR
persists through mid morning before VFR returns aft 16Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake/Johnson
AVIATION...Prieto

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
EVENING THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL. MORE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
GREATER WEST OF MANHATTAN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OTTAWA                  38.62N 95.27W
05/08/2016  E1.80 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   PUBLIC

            AS OF 445 PM CDT.

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
535 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ055-082300-
OSAGE-
535 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MELVERN LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSAGE CITY...OVERBROOK...LYNDON...QUENEMO...MELVERN LAKE AND POMONA LAKE.

LAT...LON 3857 9551 3845 9592 3856 9595 3887 9552
      3887 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 229DEG 38KT 3854 9579

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
812 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ054-055-058-090145-
OSAGE-LYON-COFFEY-
812 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COFFEY...
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEOSHO RAPIDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBO...NEOSHO RAPIDS AND READING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 148.

LAT...LON 3844 9611 3858 9587 3842 9585 3838 9584
      3838 9595 3836 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 239DEG 20KT 3842 9604

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
822 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             3 E ESKRIDGE            38.86N 96.06W
05/08/2016  E0.88 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE WITH A FEW NICKEL SIZE HAIL
            STONES.

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ038-039-055-090200-
WABAUNSEE-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KEENE AND A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HARVEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. TRAINED SPOTTERS
NEAR ESKRIDGE REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOVER...MAPLE HILL...HARVEYVILLE AND KEENE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 340 AND 346.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 161.

LAT...LON 3874 9591 3888 9609 3913 9605 3900 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 203DEG 32KT 3891 9605

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ055-090215-
OSAGE-
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MELVERN LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNDON...MELVERN...OLIVET AND MELVERN LAKE.

LAT...LON 3843 9582 3843 9585 3856 9594 3870 9563
      3851 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 244DEG 23KT 3850 9582

BD