Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Topeka, KS

523 
WWUS53 KTOP 090728
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
228 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC201-090800-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-160509T0800Z/
WASHINGTON-
228 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 228 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLENBERG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 9710 3987 9717 4000 9711 4000 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 224DEG 30KT 3988 9706 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BB

302 
WWUS53 KTOP 090750
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC201-090756-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-160509T0800Z/
WASHINGTON-
250 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3980 9710 3987 9717 4000 9711 4000 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 222DEG 32KT 4000 9691 

$$

BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Persistent showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeast
across much of northeast and east central Kansas this afternoon as a
lead wave moved northeast into south central Kansas. The convection
has also stabilized the atmosphere across northeast Kansas with
latest mesoanalysis showing around 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE at
19Z. Surface analysis at 19Z places the dryline in southwest
Kansas with a surface low in northeast New Mexico. Stronger wave
was beginning to exit the base of the upper trough across the
Rockies and was moving into western Kansas. Low level jet was
backing more to the south this afternoon with the approach of the
wave, this will focus best moisture flux into central and eastern
Kansas this evening and overnight. Forcing for ascent will
continue through the evening across south central into northeast
Kansas as left exit region of 110 kt upper jet streak approaches
the area. Areas of north central and central Kansas where the
atmosphere has not been worked over should have the better chances
of severe storms this evening where instability is higher and mid
level lapse rates are steeper. Areas further east still have the
potential for isolated severe storms this evening and tonight.
Also additional storms are likely to develop in the vicinity and
north of the warm front near the Nebraska border. Hail and winds
will be the main hazards with a few tornadoes possible.

Monday the dryline mixes to the east into central Kansas in the
afternoon while the upper trough ejects to the northeast across the
Central Plains and takes a negative tilt as it does so. Shear is
around 25 to 35 kts in the late afternoon hours with around 1200 to
1800 J/kg of mixed layer cape. Forecast soundings showing the EML
weakening late in the afternoon and expect storms to fire in the
instability axis across the eastern half of the forecast area. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards and tornadoes will
also be possible with any supercell storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

Monday Night through Wednesday...Upper trough digging SE into the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon is forecast to reach the central
rockies by 00 UTC Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper low centered over
southern Wyoming this afternoon lifts out reaching the northern
plains by 00 UTC Tuesday with a trough extending south through the
plains.  The upper trough over the central rockies continues to dig
southeast into the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. As it does, a
surface low should deepen over southeast Colorado by 00 UTC Wed and
then track east across Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday.  With
respect to the surface low, the 12 UTC GFS looks fast compared to
the 12 UTC ECMWF/NAM/Canadian and we based the forecast on the
consensus and did not the GFS.

As for the sensible weather, will forecast chance of thunderstorms
Monday night.  Severe weather parameters should decrease by Monday
evening with deep layer shear decreasing to less than 30 KTs.  On
Tuesday, northeast Kansas should be between systems and will
forecast dry weather. We are expecting more showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday associated with the second
upper trough and surface system.  The surface boundary may behave
like an inverted trough with much of the precipitation to the west
of the trough or post frontal. With this in mind, much of the
precipitation on Wednesday should be post frontal with the better
chances of severe weather east of the forecast area.

Wednesday night through Sunday, upper northwesterly flow will slowly
transition into a more zonal flow regime.  By Friday afternoon
several minor shortwaves translate through the flow, but with
moisture still off to the south, perhaps the best chance for any
significant rainfall will be late Friday into Saturday morning.  The
rest of the period suggests considerable variability at this point
with only slight chance POPs over the next weekend. Long term
guidance in good agreement that moisture will not be plentiful
outside of the weak return with a weak wave late Friday previously
mentioned.  Mainly mid level subsidence and generally stable
soundings after this suggest that perhaps some periods of showers
but likely mostly cloud cover will be the story with the zonal flow
in place suggests that baroclinicity will be at a premium.

Meanwhile, high temps and low temps will remain near normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

IFR stratus is likely to persist at terminals through 16Z Monday
as the low level inversion traps moisture below 1000 ft. KFOE may
approach LIFR being at a higher elevation. Scattered showers are
expected to develop towards sunrise, gradually clearing to VFR
before noon. Next chance of TSRA is uncertain with respect to
timing however will likely produce lower flight categories through
06Z Tuesday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake/Johnson
AVIATION...Prieto

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-100500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     HAIL             20 SW CONCORDIA         39.37N 97.93W
05/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
115 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 AM     HAIL             4 WSW GLASCO            39.33N 97.91W
05/09/2016  M1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

            RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
05/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
139 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
05/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
153 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     HAIL             W CLYDE                 39.59N 97.41W
05/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     HAIL             4 NNE CLYDE             39.64N 97.37W
05/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS