Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Topeka, KS

750 
WWUS53 KTOP 092323
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC027-161-201-100000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-160510T0000Z/
CLAY-WASHINGTON-RILEY-
623 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN
RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GREEN...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN RILEY
COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 9680 3947 9701 3963 9703 3965 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 173DEG 14KT 3954 9692 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Focus on next several hours of convection then on brief break Tues.

Severe storms will develop over the next few hours and impact much
of the area with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG with shear increasing from
NW to SE across our area from 25kts to around 45kts.  Expect mixed
modes of storms with all hazards in play.  Tornado risk appears
marginal but as usual non-zero given SE sfc flow.  Flooding and
heavy rains in local areas could actually end up being larger issue
is storms repeatedly move across same areas.

Although precip should exit by midnight the sfc low never does track
NE but instead re-develops across eastern CO as the next upper wave
approaches so look for continued SE sfc winds along with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tues but dry weather expected
at least for 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Upper trough moving across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring a cold front into eastern Kansas with the
models differing slightly with the speed. Showers and thunderstorms
look to develop and move into north central Kansas late Tuesday
evening and may hold off until after midnight. The upper trough axis
will move through eastern Kansas Wednesday night and will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with elevated instability and
cooler temps aloft with the upper trough. Northwest flow is expected
in the wake of the upper trough and continues through the weekend.
There are a number of waves that will move southeast out of Canada
across the area bringing a chance of showers and a few storms to the
area beginning Friday and off and on through next Monday. Best
chances for storms will be Friday then again on Sunday and Monday
where shear and instability will be favorable. Highs mainly in the
70s through Friday. A cold front moving through Friday night will
usher in cooler air for the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Greatest challenge is timing of convection and impacts on TAFS.
For now will trend upward on CIGS with a tempo group late
afternoon and early evening to try and time thunderstorms.
T-storms should be out of the area by 4Z however confidence is low
on potential CIGS or VIS conds thereafter due to humid airmass and
light winds as low pressure remains stationary across KS. For now
have gone MVFR on CIGS and VIS conds with some risk for IFR.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 2
AND 4PM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4PM AND 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
05/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 SE ADA                39.12N 97.84W
05/09/2016  E2.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL DECREASED TO DOLLAR COIN
            SIZE BY 533 PM.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             3 W RANDOLPH            39.43N 96.82W
05/09/2016  E2.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             DELPHOS                 39.28N 97.76W
05/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             5 NE DELPHOS            39.33N 97.71W
05/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             3 NNE LEONARDVILLE      39.40N 96.84W
05/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BB