Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Topeka, KS

594 
WWUS53 KTOP 262139
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
439 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC139-177-197-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160426T2215Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-OSAGE-
439 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE
COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DOVER...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOPEKA...CARBONDALE...ROSSVILLE...DOVER...SILVER LAKE...AUBURN...WILLARD...
BERRYTON AND PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 343 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 162 AND 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3881 9564 3884 9605 3920 9598 3917 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 196DEG 20KT 3895 9590 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

963 
WWUS53 KTOP 262149
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC139-262158-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160426T2215Z/
OSAGE-
449 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3887 9563 3890 9604 3920 9598 3917 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 195DEG 15KT 3895 9590 

$$

KSC177-197-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160426T2215Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
449 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DOVER...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FAR WEST
TOPEKA...ROSSVILLE...DOVER...SILVER
LAKE...AUBURN...WILLARD...BERRYTON AND PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 343 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3887 9563 3890 9604 3920 9598 3917 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 195DEG 15KT 3895 9590 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

702 
WWUS53 KTOP 262158
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC177-197-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160426T2215Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
458 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND WESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DOVER...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN TOPEKA...ROSSVILLE...DOVER...SILVER LAKE...AUBURN AND
WILLARD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 343 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 171.

STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF DOVER AT
455 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3889 9577 3891 9604 3920 9598 3918 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 195DEG 21KT 3900 9588 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

This afternoon an outflow boundary extended  from south of Iola, KS
and extended northwest to Salina, then to the surface low near
Elsworth, KS. MLCAPES along and south of the outflow boundary were
approaching 4000 J/KG. Thunderstorms were beginning to develop north
of the boundary and may not be surface based at this time but the
MLCAPE continues to increase north of the OFB, so I expect these
storms to become surface based. There was a pacific front extending
from the surface low, south-southwest into northwest OK. A dryline
extended from northwest OK, due south along the the OK/TX PNHDL
border. A couple of supercell thunderstorms have developed southwest
of OK, south-southwest into north central OK. These storms will move
north-northeast into south central KS. Additional supercells will
develop along the pacific front across central KS and along the OFB.
Any discrete supercell late this afternoon and evening will cause
large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast
into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough
will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into
a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Expect the
hazards to become more of a damaging wind and large hail. I cannot
rule out some brief meso vorices tornadoes within the squall line.
Flash flooding may become a problem as individual storm updrafts may
train over the same area.

Wednesday, The severe thunderstorms should move out of the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thunderstorms may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the
cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA. Some of the storms
during the afternoon may be strong and produce hail and gusty winds.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

For the mid and extended range forecasts, a wet pattern will likely
continue heading into Friday and the weekend after a lull in
activity on Thursday as the upper low becomes barotropic over the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and begins to fill and
eventually transition into an open wave. Shortwave ridging advects
over the region on Thursday daytime frame into Friday keeping
northeastern KS dry.  Yet another upper low in a series of upper
level lows digs into the Southern Rockies late Friday and kick out a
lead shortwave into the Central Plains.  This will initially help to
begin to draw moisture back north again.  However, the associated
upper level low doesn't really deepen until Saturday which will
bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances.  Severe activity
could be possible Saturday afternoon into the evening as stronger
moisture advection increases along with favorable 0-6km shear of
around 50kts and increasing instability with steep mid level lapse
rates in the range of 7 to 8 C/km overlay the area.  Into the day
Sunday, this upper low will go though its complete evolution much
like the current upper low and transition into an open wave as it
advects over the Ohio Valley.  Hard to believe, but yet another
upper low is currently progged to be over the Desert Southwest late
in the period.  This could bring several minor shortwaves that cause
mainly rain as significant severe parameters right now don't appear
to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Expect VFR conditions trough 20Z. Thunderstorms will develop
around the terminals and I expect a line or complex of storms to
form across north central KS and move east across the terminals
during the evening hours. We will have better timing once the
storms develop. Expect high wind gusts, hail and heavy rain with
any thunderstorm complex. Visibilities and Ceilings will go down
to at least MVFR in thunderstorms, perhaps brief IFR condition.
The line of storms should clear the terminals between 6Z and 9Z
WED.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL
BIGGER THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             1 W MANHATTAN           39.19N 96.60W
04/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
404 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             15 N MANHATTAN          39.40N 96.57W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             ALTA VISTA              38.86N 96.49W
04/26/2016  E1.25 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             2 S AUBURN              38.88N 95.82W
04/26/2016  E1.25 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY EM

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
423 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             1 WSW OLSBURG           39.43N 96.63W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COVERING THE GROUND

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             MORROWVILLE             39.85N 97.17W
04/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB