Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

This afternoon an outflow boundary extended  from south of Iola, KS
and extended northwest to Salina, then to the surface low near
Elsworth, KS. MLCAPES along and south of the outflow boundary were
approaching 4000 J/KG. Thunderstorms were beginning to develop north
of the boundary and may not be surface based at this time but the
MLCAPE continues to increase north of the OFB, so I expect these
storms to become surface based. There was a pacific front extending
from the surface low, south-southwest into northwest OK. A dryline
extended from northwest OK, due south along the the OK/TX PNHDL
border. A couple of supercell thunderstorms have developed southwest
of OK, south-southwest into north central OK. These storms will move
north-northeast into south central KS. Additional supercells will
develop along the pacific front across central KS and along the OFB.
Any discrete supercell late this afternoon and evening will cause
large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast
into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough
will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into
a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Expect the
hazards to become more of a damaging wind and large hail. I cannot
rule out some brief meso vorices tornadoes within the squall line.
Flash flooding may become a problem as individual storm updrafts may
train over the same area.

Wednesday, The severe thunderstorms should move out of the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thunderstorms may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the
cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA. Some of the storms
during the afternoon may be strong and produce hail and gusty winds.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

For the mid and extended range forecasts, a wet pattern will likely
continue heading into Friday and the weekend after a lull in
activity on Thursday as the upper low becomes barotropic over the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and begins to fill and
eventually transition into an open wave. Shortwave ridging advects
over the region on Thursday daytime frame into Friday keeping
northeastern KS dry.  Yet another upper low in a series of upper
level lows digs into the Southern Rockies late Friday and kick out a
lead shortwave into the Central Plains.  This will initially help to
begin to draw moisture back north again.  However, the associated
upper level low doesn't really deepen until Saturday which will
bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances.  Severe activity
could be possible Saturday afternoon into the evening as stronger
moisture advection increases along with favorable 0-6km shear of
around 50kts and increasing instability with steep mid level lapse
rates in the range of 7 to 8 C/km overlay the area.  Into the day
Sunday, this upper low will go though its complete evolution much
like the current upper low and transition into an open wave as it
advects over the Ohio Valley.  Hard to believe, but yet another
upper low is currently progged to be over the Desert Southwest late
in the period.  This could bring several minor shortwaves that cause
mainly rain as significant severe parameters right now don't appear
to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Expect VFR conditions trough 20Z. Thunderstorms will develop
around the terminals and I expect a line or complex of storms to
form across north central KS and move east across the terminals
during the evening hours. We will have better timing once the
storms develop. Expect high wind gusts, hail and heavy rain with
any thunderstorm complex. Visibilities and Ceilings will go down
to at least MVFR in thunderstorms, perhaps brief IFR condition.
The line of storms should clear the terminals between 6Z and 9Z
WED.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL
BIGGER THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
446 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             DOVER                   38.97N 95.94W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             5 SW MARYSVILLE         39.79N 96.71W
04/26/2016  E2.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             2 NW MARYSVILLE         39.86N 96.68W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
452 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE DWIGHT            38.88N 96.57W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
453 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             2 N WATERVILLE          39.72N 96.75W
04/26/2016  E2.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOWS BROKEN OUT OF HOME.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
454 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             1 S WATERVILLE          39.68N 96.75W
04/26/2016  E2.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG