Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Topeka, KS

925 
WWUS53 KTOP 262025
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC003-031-059-139-262100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160426T2100Z/
COFFEY-FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-OSAGE-
325 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 324 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WESTPHALIA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...WAVERLY...WILLIAMSBURG...MELVERN...WESTPHALIA AND HARRIS. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 171.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3819 9574 3852 9569 3849 9532 3812 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 198DEG 29KT 3824 9560 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

681 
WWUS53 KTOP 262033
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC003-031-059-139-262100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160426T2100Z/
COFFEY-FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-OSAGE-
333 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 333 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW STRAWN...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY...WILLIAMSBURG...MELVERN AND HARRIS. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 171.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3852 9569 3849 9532 3821 9551 3826 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 186DEG 30KT 3831 9567 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

689 
WWUS53 KTOP 262052
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC003-031-262101-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160426T2100Z/
COFFEY-ANDERSON-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3839 9545 3840 9551 3843 9551 3843 9568
      3844 9570 3852 9569 3849 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 198DEG 29KT 3845 9561 

$$

KSC059-139-262100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160426T2100Z/
FRANKLIN-OSAGE-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAVERLY...MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSBURG AND MELVERN. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 171.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3839 9545 3840 9551 3843 9551 3843 9568
      3844 9570 3852 9569 3849 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 198DEG 29KT 3845 9561 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
117 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

08Z water vapor shows a closed upper low over eastern UT with a
shortwave trough rotating around the southwest quad of the Low. At
the surface, low pressure over eastern CO has allowed a very moist
airmass to continue advecting north with dewpoints in the lower and
middle 60s. With cool temps aloft, the warm moist air at the surface
is resulting in a quite a bit of instability as already seen with
the morning convection. Overall, a very unstable airmass is likely
to remain over the forecast area into tonight. And while deep layer
shear could be better, it should be sufficient for storm
organization should storms develop. The main uncertainty in the
forecast is how everything will eventually play out. The morning
convection could end up laying down a decent outflow boundary which
may act as an additional focus for storm development later today.

Overall the thinking is the morning convection should initially fall
apart. Then when and where storms redevelop may largely be driven by
mesoscale features. Models show the shortwave trough in the base of
the upper low lifting out across the state by the early evening.
This increase in large scale forcing should lead to wide spread
precip given the amount of instability progged to be in place. The
main concern is the potential for a couple tornadoes. With model
trends having the surface low further west, this allows surface
winds across the forecast area to remain backed to the east and
southeast creating favorable hodographs. Models indicate the best
low level shear is probably going to develop through the early
evening so the tornado threat could last well into the evening. With
the steep lapse rates, very large hail will be possible.
Additionally the recent rains and available moisture in the
atmosphere will increase chances for localized flash flooding.

As for temps today, have not gone to far from the model consensus.
If areas see some decent sunshine, think highs should again be in
the mid 70s to around 80. Lows tonight may end up being a little
milder as models are slower to advect dry air in from the west.
However expected precip and cold pool effects could cause lows to be
a little cooler. The forecast has them ranging from the lower 50s in
the west to around 60 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

On Wednesday, the upper low will pause and pivot over south central
NE and then move nearly due east by late in the day. The now diffuse
dryline will have pushed to the eastern edge of the forecast area
although the NAM continues to stand alone in holding up this
boundary roughly along the Turnpike. While acknowledging the NAM and
its relative plausibility, feel that the magnitude of sfc moisture
that it maintains in the area seems overdone. So, despite steep
lapse rates aloft, any instability left in the are is unlikely to be
very impressive. Will still see a chance for storms mainly in far
eastern and northern parts of the area near the sfc and upper low
and a sfc front that arcs back NW out of MO to these features. Wind
shear in these areas is also not particularly impressive with the
low becoming more stacked, so while a couple of strong/severe storms
can't be ruled out, the more likely scenario seems to point toward
minimal severe potential on Wednesday. A few showers or a
thunderstorm may linger in northern KS Wednesday night as the upper
low tracks east, but expect a dry period for most of the area, and
for the entire area on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
in the wake of this storm system with lows mainly in the 40s and
highs on Thursday in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

The next storm system, another strong upper low that at least
briefly takes on a negative tilt, will begin to kick out into the
Plains by early Friday morning with lead energy bringing
thunderstorms into western KS and possibly as far east as parts of
the local area. Scattered storm chances will persist into Friday but
rain and storms are more likely to be widespread by Friday night as
model consensus is strong regarding timing and presence of
widespread precipitation. Rain chances linger into the first part of
next week as the upper low becomes convoluted and stalls over the
central Plains. Saturday gives indications as a potential severe
weather day, with less chance on Friday. With potential for
widespread clouds and periods of precip, severe potential may depend
on periods of local warming to increase instability amidst modest to
adequate deep layer shear. With the expectation for those widespread
clouds, have continued with cooler high temps in the 60s or lower
70s and a bit warmer lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Expect VFR conditions trough 20Z. Thunderstorms will develop
around the terminals and I expect a line or complex of storms to
form across north central KS and move east across the terminals
during the evening hours. We will have better timing once the
storms develop. Expect high wind gusts, hail and heavy rain with
any thunderstorm complex. Visibilities and Ceilings will go down
to at least MVFR in thunderstorms, perhaps brief IFR condition.
The line of storms should clear the terminals between 6Z and 9Z
WED.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
451 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL BIGGER
THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
934 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW BEATTIE           39.89N 96.51W
04/26/2016                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARSHALL COUNTY EM REPORTED FLOODING OVER THE ROADS IN
            SEVERAL SPOTS BETWEEN OKETO TO BEATTY AREAS.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
957 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S NORTONVILLE         39.38N 95.33W
04/26/2016                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED GRAIN ROOF BLOWN OFF AND THROWN APPROXIMATELY
            600 FEET. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0914 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE MARYSVILLE          39.85N 96.64W
04/26/2016  M2.40 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE