Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Topeka, KS

005 
WWUS53 KTOP 260913
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
413 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC201-260945-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160426T0945Z/
WASHINGTON-
413 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 413 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9704 3976 9717 3999 9711 3985 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 210DEG 20KT 3975 9710 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

281 
WWUS53 KTOP 260926
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC201-260945-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160426T0945Z/
WASHINGTON-
426 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 425 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WASHINGTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 423 AM CDT, SPOTTERS REPORTED
         TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL IN WASHINGTON. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 9702 3980 9711 3997 9707 3985 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 211DEG 23KT 3984 9702 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

038 
WWUS53 KTOP 260938
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC201-260948-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160426T0945Z/
WASHINGTON-
438 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3976 9702 3980 9711 3997 9707 3985 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 210DEG 20KT 3984 9702 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

08Z water vapor shows a closed upper low over eastern UT with a
shortwave trough rotating around the southwest quad of the Low. At
the surface, low pressure over eastern CO has allowed a very moist
airmass to continue advecting north with dewpoints in the lower and
middle 60s. With cool temps aloft, the warm moist air at the surface
is resulting in a quite a bit of instability as already seen with
the morning convection. Overall, a very unstable airmass is likely
to remain over the forecast area into tonight. And while deep layer
shear could be better, it should be sufficient for storm
organization should storms develop. The main uncertainty in the
forecast is how everything will eventually play out. The morning
convection could end up laying down a decent outflow boundary which
may act as an additional focus for storm development later today.

Overall the thinking is the morning convection should initially fall
apart. Then when and where storms redevelop may largely be driven by
mesoscale features. Models show the shortwave trough in the base of
the upper low lifting out across the state by the early evening.
This increase in large scale forcing should lead to wide spread
precip given the amount of instability progged to be in place. The
main concern is the potential for a couple tornadoes. With model
trends having the surface low further west, this allows surface
winds across the forecast area to remain backed to the east and
southeast creating favorable hodographs. Models indicate the best
low level shear is probably going to develop through the early
evening so the tornado threat could last well into the evening. With
the steep lapse rates, very large hail will be possible.
Additionally the recent rains and available moisture in the
atmosphere will increase chances for localized flash flooding.

As for temps today, have not gone to far from the model consensus.
If areas see some decent sunshine, think highs should again be in
the mid 70s to around 80. Lows tonight may end up being a little
milder as models are slower to advect dry air in from the west.
However expected precip and cold pool effects could cause lows to be
a little cooler. The forecast has them ranging from the lower 50s in
the west to around 60 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

On Wednesday, the upper low will pause and pivot over south central
NE and then move nearly due east by late in the day. The now diffuse
dryline will have pushed to the eastern edge of the forecast area
although the NAM continues to stand alone in holding up this
boundary roughly along the Turnpike. While acknowledging the NAM and
its relative plausibility, feel that the magnitude of sfc moisture
that it maintains in the area seems overdone. So, despite steep
lapse rates aloft, any instability left in the are is unlikely to be
very impressive. Will still see a chance for storms mainly in far
eastern and northern parts of the area near the sfc and upper low
and a sfc front that arcs back NW out of MO to these features. Wind
shear in these areas is also not particularly impressive with the
low becoming more stacked, so while a couple of strong/severe storms
can't be ruled out, the more likely scenario seems to point toward
minimal severe potential on Wednesday. A few showers or a
thunderstorm may linger in northern KS Wednesday night as the upper
low tracks east, but expect a dry period for most of the area, and
for the entire area on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
in the wake of this storm system with lows mainly in the 40s and
highs on Thursday in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

The next storm system, another strong upper low that at least
briefly takes on a negative tilt, will begin to kick out into the
Plains by early Friday morning with lead energy bringing
thunderstorms into western KS and possibly as far east as parts of
the local area. Scattered storm chances will persist into Friday but
rain and storms are more likely to be widespread by Friday night as
model consensus is strong regarding timing and presence of
widespread precipitation. Rain chances linger into the first part of
next week as the upper low becomes convoluted and stalls over the
central Plains. Saturday gives indications as a potential severe
weather day, with less chance on Friday. With potential for
widespread clouds and periods of precip, severe potential may depend
on periods of local warming to increase instability amidst modest to
adequate deep layer shear. With the expectation for those widespread
clouds, have continued with cooler high temps in the 60s or lower
70s and a bit warmer lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Confidence is low on the specifics but concern for limitations remains
with light winds and lower levels moistening. Short range models
struggling with the near term but pointing to more active
convection firing toward 09Z and likely persisting for a few
hours. Expect increasing mixing to bring VFR for the late periods.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
350 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     HAIL             6 ESE AGENDA            39.67N 97.33W
04/26/2016  E2.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 AM     HAIL             3 E CUBA                39.80N 97.40W
04/26/2016  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH