Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Topeka, KS

517 
WWUS53 KTOP 261210
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC131-261220-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160426T1215Z/
NEMAHA-
710 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN NEMAHA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 715 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3993 9579 3957 9579 3957 9601 3989 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 268DEG 31KT 3970 9585 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
654 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

08Z water vapor shows a closed upper low over eastern UT with a
shortwave trough rotating around the southwest quad of the Low. At
the surface, low pressure over eastern CO has allowed a very moist
airmass to continue advecting north with dewpoints in the lower and
middle 60s. With cool temps aloft, the warm moist air at the surface
is resulting in a quite a bit of instability as already seen with
the morning convection. Overall, a very unstable airmass is likely
to remain over the forecast area into tonight. And while deep layer
shear could be better, it should be sufficient for storm
organization should storms develop. The main uncertainty in the
forecast is how everything will eventually play out. The morning
convection could end up laying down a decent outflow boundary which
may act as an additional focus for storm development later today.

Overall the thinking is the morning convection should initially fall
apart. Then when and where storms redevelop may largely be driven by
mesoscale features. Models show the shortwave trough in the base of
the upper low lifting out across the state by the early evening.
This increase in large scale forcing should lead to wide spread
precip given the amount of instability progged to be in place. The
main concern is the potential for a couple tornadoes. With model
trends having the surface low further west, this allows surface
winds across the forecast area to remain backed to the east and
southeast creating favorable hodographs. Models indicate the best
low level shear is probably going to develop through the early
evening so the tornado threat could last well into the evening. With
the steep lapse rates, very large hail will be possible.
Additionally the recent rains and available moisture in the
atmosphere will increase chances for localized flash flooding.

As for temps today, have not gone to far from the model consensus.
If areas see some decent sunshine, think highs should again be in
the mid 70s to around 80. Lows tonight may end up being a little
milder as models are slower to advect dry air in from the west.
However expected precip and cold pool effects could cause lows to be
a little cooler. The forecast has them ranging from the lower 50s in
the west to around 60 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

On Wednesday, the upper low will pause and pivot over south central
NE and then move nearly due east by late in the day. The now diffuse
dryline will have pushed to the eastern edge of the forecast area
although the NAM continues to stand alone in holding up this
boundary roughly along the Turnpike. While acknowledging the NAM and
its relative plausibility, feel that the magnitude of sfc moisture
that it maintains in the area seems overdone. So, despite steep
lapse rates aloft, any instability left in the are is unlikely to be
very impressive. Will still see a chance for storms mainly in far
eastern and northern parts of the area near the sfc and upper low
and a sfc front that arcs back NW out of MO to these features. Wind
shear in these areas is also not particularly impressive with the
low becoming more stacked, so while a couple of strong/severe storms
can't be ruled out, the more likely scenario seems to point toward
minimal severe potential on Wednesday. A few showers or a
thunderstorm may linger in northern KS Wednesday night as the upper
low tracks east, but expect a dry period for most of the area, and
for the entire area on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
in the wake of this storm system with lows mainly in the 40s and
highs on Thursday in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

The next storm system, another strong upper low that at least
briefly takes on a negative tilt, will begin to kick out into the
Plains by early Friday morning with lead energy bringing
thunderstorms into western KS and possibly as far east as parts of
the local area. Scattered storm chances will persist into Friday but
rain and storms are more likely to be widespread by Friday night as
model consensus is strong regarding timing and presence of
widespread precipitation. Rain chances linger into the first part of
next week as the upper low becomes convoluted and stalls over the
central Plains. Saturday gives indications as a potential severe
weather day, with less chance on Friday. With potential for
widespread clouds and periods of precip, severe potential may depend
on periods of local warming to increase instability amidst modest to
adequate deep layer shear. With the expectation for those widespread
clouds, have continued with cooler high temps in the 60s or lower
70s and a bit warmer lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

The expectation for widespread thunderstorms this afternoon, and
uncertainty in the location of a weak outflow boundary near TAF
sites introduces substantial uncertainty to this TAF. Expect
morning winds to generally be from the east with MVFR cigs,
although those cigs should scatter by late morning or early
afternoon. TS should develop near TAF sites by mid/late afternoon
with periods of TS through the night. Amendments will be
necessary in accordance with thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
451 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL BIGGER
THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W FRANKFORT           39.71N 96.45W
04/26/2016  E75 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WIND FLIPPED CARPORT...BLEW IT INTO TREES...AND HELD IT
            IN THE TREES. ESTIMATED 75 TO 80 MPH.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     HAIL             3 W BEATTIE             39.86N 96.48W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEAS BUT A FEW DIME AND QUARTER SIZE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
618 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ022-023-261145-
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-
618 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 618 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG WINDS ALONG A
GUSTFRONT EXTENDING FROM WHEATON TO NEAR KEATS. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...WAMEGO...WESTMORELAND...BLAINE...ONAGA...ST. GEORGE...BELVUE...
EMMETT...LOUISVILLE...WHEATON...KEATS AND TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3948 9604 3927 9603 3919 9617 3921 9618
      3921 9624 3918 9627 3919 9632 3915 9634
      3917 9636 3917 9639 3907 9650 3907 9660
      3926 9681 3957 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1118Z 299DEG 25KT 3950 9633 3926 9673

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW BAILEYVILLE       39.79N 96.21W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     TSTM WND GST     BLUE RAPIDS             39.68N 96.66W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     TSTM WND GST     WSW CORNING             39.66N 96.03W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

BYRNE