Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 11, 2016Blaine County, Hill County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 11, 2016, 6:32 AM MDT for Blaine County, Hill County, Montana. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2016, 6:32 AM MDT (12:32 UTC)
Expired: Jun 11, 2016, 7:15 AM MDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Blaine County, MT, Hill County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 193 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -246 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 566 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 403 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

737 
WUUS55 KTFX 111232
SVRTFX
MTC005-041-111315-
/O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0041.160611T1232Z-160611T1315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
632 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
  EAST CENTRAL HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 715 AM MDT

* AT 631 AM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  HAVRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAVRE...CHINOOK...ZURICH AND LOHMAN. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 382 AND 416.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4866 10866 4838 10959 4873 10979 4901 10902
      4900 10896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 242DEG 42KT 4859 10955 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

2 follow-up statements

015 
WWUS55 KTFX 111250
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
650 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

MTC041-111259-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160611T1315Z/
HILL MT-
650 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HILL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4844 10938 4883 10950 4901 10902 4900 10896
      4866 10866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 242DEG 42KT 4869 10927 

$$

MTC005-111315-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160611T1315Z/
BLAINE MT-
650 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY...

AT 649 AM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
CHINOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHINOOK...ZURICH AND LOHMAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4844 10938 4883 10950 4901 10902 4900 10896
      4866 10866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 242DEG 42KT 4869 10927 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

707 
WWUS55 KTFX 111315
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
715 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

MTC005-111324-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-160611T1315Z/
BLAINE MT-
715 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 AM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HAIL UP
TO DIME SIZE IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4844 10938 4883 10950 4901 10902 4900 10896
      4866 10866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 242DEG 42KT 4869 10927 

$$

MARTIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 11, 5:45 AM MDT, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 11, 5:45 AM MDT, 47 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...Update to Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...An upper level trough remains over British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest this morning with an unstable
southwest flow aloft over Montana. Models significantly weaken
this feature as it moves slowly eastward through the weekend.
Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today
through this evening across the forecast area with much cooler
high temperatures expected this afternoon. Models and SPC are
indicating that the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will
shift eastward today, affecting mainly northeast Montana. However,
do not believe that I can rule out an isolated strong storm or two
in Blaine and Fergus Counties this afternoon/evening. Slightly
warmer, breezy and mostly dry conditions will prevail on Sunday as
the weakening upper trough moves away from the region and Montana
is left beneath a brisk westerly flow aloft. Temperatures continue
to warm on Monday as another short wave trough approaches the
state with isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
over southwest Montana and tracking northeastward during the
afternoon. mpj

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...Medium range forecast models agree
on moving a low pressure center out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast through Friday. This will deepen the upper
trough there through the period and shift the relatively dry
southwest flow aloft to an increasingly moist and unstable southerly
flow. As a result, there will be a fairly consistent chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area Tuesday through
Thursday, along with near normal temperatures. However, the models
differ somewhat for the Friday through Saturday period. The ECMWF
(European) and GEM (Canadian) models keep this flow aloft in place,
continuing the unsettled weather, while the GFS starts to build the
central CONUS high pressure ridge west into the state and keeps the
forecast area dry. Have therefore decided to keep a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms through Saturday, but kept the chance below
climatological normals. Model consensus also hints at temperatures
warming back above normal to end the week, so have stayed with that
trend.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

Several strong thunderstorms will continue to move northeast through
central Montana this morning but are expected to move into Canada by
15Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this
afternoon and evening as well. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period but areas MVFR are expected through 15Z
this morning as low level moisture lingers over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  42  71  45 /  30  20  10   0
CTB  62  40  67  43 /  30  10   0   0
HLN  63  44  73  47 /  40  30  10   0
BZN  68  42  71  44 /  40  40  10  10
WEY  62  36  61  39 /  40  30  10  20
DLN  66  40  70  42 /  50  40  10  10
HVR  64  44  72  45 /  30  30   0   0
LWT  63  43  70  46 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 11, 5:05 AM MDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
505 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 AM     HAIL             GREAT FALLS             47.50N 111.29W
06/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

Local storm report, Jun 11, 5:07 AM MDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
507 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     HAIL             GREAT FALLS             47.50N 111.29W
06/11/2016  M1.50 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jun 11, 5:32 AM MDT, 1 hour before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

MTZ012-014-048-049-111200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK MT-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-CASCADE MT-EASTERN TETON MT-
532 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CASCADE...
SOUTHEASTERN TETON AND CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM
MDT...

AT 531 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT  SHAW...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CASCADE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POWER...FORT SHAW...FORT  SHAW...SIMMS...VAUGHN...SUN RIVER AND FIRST
PEOPLES BUFFALO JUMP STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 4724 11192 4735 11211 4781 11165 4759 11129
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 223DEG 51KT 4737 11193

MARTIN

Local storm report, Jun 11, 5:35 AM MDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     HAIL             GREAT FALLS             47.50N 111.29W
06/11/2016  M1.25 INCH       CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

Local storm report, Jun 11, 5:42 AM MDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
542 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             3 E GREAT FALLS         47.50N 111.23W
06/11/2016  E1.75 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF GREAT
            FALLS. HAIL CAUSED DAMAGE TO VEHICLES

&&

MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jun 11, 6:04 AM MDT, 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
604 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

MTZ011-013-047-111245-
HILL MT-BLAINE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
604 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU...
SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM
MDT...

AT 604 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF BIG SANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARKER SCHOOL...BONEAU...SANGREY...ST. PIERRE...AGENCY...AZURE...
ROCKY BOY AND VIRGELLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4787 11034 4800 11041 4838 10974 4811 10947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1204Z 238DEG 40KT 4799 11020

MARTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 6:00 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	30 min
Jun 10, 6:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus	30 min
Jun 10, 6:03 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	TFX	Fergus	27 min
Jun 10, 6:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	28 min
Jun 10, 6:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Judith Basin	35 min
Jun 10, 6:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	29 min
Jun 10, 6:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	38 min
Jun 10, 6:58 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	32 min
Jun 10, 7:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Fergus	57 min
Jun 10, 7:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	15 min
Jun 10, 7:53 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Teton	37 min
Jun 10, 8:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	45 min
Jun 10, 8:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	44 min
Jun 10, 8:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	47 min
Jun 10, 9:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	30 min
Jun 10, 9:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	40 min
Jun 10, 9:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	32 min
Jun 10, 9:50 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		40 min
Jun 10, 10:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	44 min
Jun 10, 10:31 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	6 hr
Jun 10, 10:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		24 min
Jun 10, 11:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		61 min
Jun 11, 4:50 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	25 min
Jun 11, 4:50 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	25 min
Jun 11, 5:13 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	47 min
Jun 11, 5:18 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Hill, Liberty	42 min
Jun 11, 5:32 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	28 min
Jun 11, 5:59 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Hill	46 min
Jun 11, 6:04 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Chouteau	41 min
Jun 11, 7:17 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Blaine	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.