Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Great Falls, MT

615 
WWUS55 KTFX 110045
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
645 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC027-110100-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-160611T0100Z/
FERGUS MT-
645 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 644 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROY...OR 31
MILES NORTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE NEAR CHRISTINA.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROY AND FERGUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4732 10881 4730 10885 4728 10911 4745 10933
      4758 10912 4747 10897 4733 10877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 252DEG 35KT 4741 10900 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Latest analysis shows circulation center and axis of Pacific
upper-level trof has reached the WA/OR coast and is expected to
make somewhat slow but steady progress eastward overnight.
Moist southwest flow aloft along the leading edge of the trof
combined with easterly surface winds bringing low-level moisture
have set the stage for another round of thunderstorms this
aftn/eve across central MT. Most parameters (CAPE, 0-6km wind
shear, lifted index etc.) are well within the range for strong to
severe storms, but will have to break the shallow low-level
inversion that was still evident on the special balloon sounding
we did at midday. We still expect that break to occur, but it may
be later this aftn or early eve. Additional support for severe
weather will come from the arrival of stronger jet stream winds
(100-115 mph) now through this evening. Morning forecast models
did shift the jet's core (115-125mph) to the west side of the
Divide from earlier runs, so jet's contribution in our area may
be reduced, but should be sufficient to help boost some storm
development.

Models continue to indicate slow approach of a surface cold front
from the Pacific system, LCL not making it east of the Rocky Mtn
Front until mid-late evening as cold air push behind it is not
particularly strong.  That may help storms persist a bit longer in
our region as unstable conditions persist ahead of the front. Most
convective activity will dissipate across the central counties by
midnight, but scattered showers and a few storms will linger along
the Hiline through the overnight hours. Southwest flow aloft
continues on Sat as the trof axis moves to the ID Panhandle, so most
locations will see another round of showers and some thunderstorms
Sat aftn.  With less instability behind the front, best chances for
severe storms move to eastern MT tomorrow, and we'll see more of the
short-lived, pulse-type storms with only marginal threat for gusty
outflow winds and small hail.  The trof axis finally reaches our
area on Sun, bringing mostly dry conditions. Forecast on track for
cooler temps through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s on Sat/Sun.
Waranauskas

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A somewhat dry and breezy westerly
flow aloft will move into the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. The resulting downsloping winds will keep North Central
Montana dry through this period, but a disturbance will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over Southwest Montana. A low
pressure center will then move out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting
moist and unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana will bring a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area during
this time. Temperatures may cool enough to cause minor snow
accumulation above mountain pass level, but significant impacts are
unlikely. A high pressure ridge will then amplify over the central
United States, which will shift the flow a bit farther west and
focus the bulk of the showers/storms more so over Western Montana
for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will not fluctuate much
during the period. Slightly above normal temperatures will fall to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, but they will warm back
above normal by Friday as the high pressure ridge builds into the
area.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue over north-central
Montana this evening. Some storms will be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds especially near KLWT, KGTF and KHVR.
Additional thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail near
KCTB and KHLN. An isolated shower is possible at KBZN. Storms should
weaken and dissipate after 04z. Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
are possible in and near thunderstorms along with gusty erratic
winds. There may be low clouds after 06z but confidence is low on
cig heights. A few showers are possible on Saturday, especially in
the mountains, otherwise VFR conditions are expected after 12z. MLS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  67  44  71 /  30  30  20  10
CTB  51  65  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  58  67  47  72 /  30  40  30  10
BZN  53  69  44  71 /  20  40  30  20
WEY  48  61  39  61 /  10  40  30  20
DLN  53  66  43  69 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  55  72  47  72 /  60  40  20   0
LWT  54  67  46  70 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
549 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             MONARCH                 47.10N 110.84W
06/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE FALLING.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             SW SQUARE BUTTE         47.52N 110.20W
06/10/2016  E2.00 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED HAIL FALLING UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ012-013-050-054-110030-
MEAGHER MT-CASCADE MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU...
SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE...NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN AND NORTHERN MEAGHER
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 600 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21
MILES SOUTH OF BELT...OR 32 MILES WEST OF STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GEYSER...RAYNESFORD...SLUICE BOXES STATE PARK AND MONARCH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4696 11099 4712 11112 4744 11067 4724 11033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 244DEG 52KT 4708 11091

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
614 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             8 S HIGHWOOD            47.47N 110.79W
06/10/2016  E2.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2-INCH HAIL...TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
620 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             4 NE WINIFRED           47.60N 109.30W
06/10/2016  E0.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
628 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE DENTON            47.30N 109.85W
06/10/2016  M55 MPH          FERGUS             MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            55 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF DENTON.

&&

BRUSDA