Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Great Falls, MT

713 
WWUS55 KTFX 110137
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
737 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC015-110145-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160611T0230Z/
CHOUTEAU MT-
737 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4717 10949 4753 10980 4768 10982 4773 10948
      4772 10943 4775 10935 4777 10923 4773 10890
      4731 10869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 253DEG 40KT 4743 10952 

$$

MTC027-110230-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160611T0230Z/
FERGUS MT-
737 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 735 PM MDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINIFRED...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINIFRED...ROY...FERGUS...SUFFOLK...CHRISTINA AND HILGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4717 10949 4753 10980 4768 10982 4773 10948
      4772 10943 4775 10935 4777 10923 4773 10890
      4731 10869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 253DEG 40KT 4743 10952 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

349 
WWUS55 KTFX 110158
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC027-110230-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160611T0230Z/
FERGUS MT-
758 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 757 PM MDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER AND
NEAR WINIFRED...OR 34 MILES NORTH OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINIFRED...ROY...FERGUS...SUFFOLK AND CHRISTINA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4723 10916 4755 10957 4771 10961 4773 10948
      4772 10943 4775 10935 4777 10923 4773 10890
      4731 10869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 220DEG 39KT 4755 10935 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

628 
WWUS55 KTFX 110213
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
813 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC027-110222-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160611T0230Z/
FERGUS MT-
813 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A NEW ONE. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4723 10916 4755 10957 4771 10961 4773 10948
      4772 10943 4775 10935 4777 10923 4773 10890
      4731 10869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 250DEG 49KT 4762 10905 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Latest analysis shows circulation center and axis of Pacific
upper-level trof has reached the WA/OR coast and is expected to
make somewhat slow but steady progress eastward overnight.
Moist southwest flow aloft along the leading edge of the trof
combined with easterly surface winds bringing low-level moisture
have set the stage for another round of thunderstorms this
aftn/eve across central MT. Most parameters (CAPE, 0-6km wind
shear, lifted index etc.) are well within the range for strong to
severe storms, but will have to break the shallow low-level
inversion that was still evident on the special balloon sounding
we did at midday. We still expect that break to occur, but it may
be later this aftn or early eve. Additional support for severe
weather will come from the arrival of stronger jet stream winds
(100-115 mph) now through this evening. Morning forecast models
did shift the jet's core (115-125mph) to the west side of the
Divide from earlier runs, so jet's contribution in our area may
be reduced, but should be sufficient to help boost some storm
development.

Models continue to indicate slow approach of a surface cold front
from the Pacific system, LCL not making it east of the Rocky Mtn
Front until mid-late evening as cold air push behind it is not
particularly strong.  That may help storms persist a bit longer in
our region as unstable conditions persist ahead of the front. Most
convective activity will dissipate across the central counties by
midnight, but scattered showers and a few storms will linger along
the Hiline through the overnight hours. Southwest flow aloft
continues on Sat as the trof axis moves to the ID Panhandle, so most
locations will see another round of showers and some thunderstorms
Sat aftn.  With less instability behind the front, best chances for
severe storms move to eastern MT tomorrow, and we'll see more of the
short-lived, pulse-type storms with only marginal threat for gusty
outflow winds and small hail.  The trof axis finally reaches our
area on Sun, bringing mostly dry conditions. Forecast on track for
cooler temps through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s on Sat/Sun.
Waranauskas

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A somewhat dry and breezy westerly
flow aloft will move into the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. The resulting downsloping winds will keep North Central
Montana dry through this period, but a disturbance will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over Southwest Montana. A low
pressure center will then move out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting
moist and unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana will bring a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area during
this time. Temperatures may cool enough to cause minor snow
accumulation above mountain pass level, but significant impacts are
unlikely. A high pressure ridge will then amplify over the central
United States, which will shift the flow a bit farther west and
focus the bulk of the showers/storms more so over Western Montana
for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will not fluctuate much
during the period. Slightly above normal temperatures will fall to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, but they will warm back
above normal by Friday as the high pressure ridge builds into the
area.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue over north-central
Montana this evening. Some storms will be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds especially near KLWT, KGTF and KHVR.
Additional thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail near
KCTB and KHLN. An isolated shower is possible at KBZN. Storms should
weaken and dissipate after 04z. Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
are possible in and near thunderstorms along with gusty erratic
winds. There may be low clouds after 06z but confidence is low on
cig heights. A few showers are possible on Saturday, especially in
the mountains, otherwise VFR conditions are expected after 12z. MLS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  67  44  71 /  30  30  20  10
CTB  51  65  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  58  67  47  72 /  30  40  30  10
BZN  53  69  44  71 /  20  40  30  20
WEY  48  61  39  61 /  10  40  30  20
DLN  53  66  43  69 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  55  72  47  72 /  60  40  20   0
LWT  54  67  46  70 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
649 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             2 W SUFFOLK             47.47N 109.40W
06/10/2016  M2.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
651 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     WALL CLOUD       1 SE SUFFOLK            47.46N 109.34W
06/10/2016                   FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
652 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE DENTON            47.35N 109.87W
06/10/2016                   FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
654 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     WALL CLOUD       6 ENE DANVERS           47.26N 109.60W
06/10/2016                   FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
655 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             1 N CHRISTINA           47.40N 109.32W
06/10/2016  E2.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
658 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ013-050-051-110130-
FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
658 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU...
NORTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN FERGUS COUNTIES UNTIL 730
PM MDT...

AT 657 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON AND COFFEE CREEK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4713 11010 4731 11034 4771 10991 4741 10941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 230DEG 64KT 4723 11028

KJ