Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Great Falls, MT

095 
WWUS55 KTFX 110116
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
716 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC005-110124-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160611T0130Z/
BLAINE MT-
716 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4734 10881 4755 10886 4760 10878 4760 10875
      4761 10869 4762 10868 4763 10861 4760 10847
      4761 10844 4758 10842 4760 10840 4757 10834
      4758 10831 4742 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 252DEG 35KT 4750 10856 

$$

MTC027-110130-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160611T0130Z/
FERGUS MT-
716 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 714 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 21 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ROY...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF ZORTMAN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 710PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS
         REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROY.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4734 10881 4755 10886 4760 10878 4760 10875
      4761 10869 4762 10868 4763 10861 4760 10847
      4761 10844 4758 10842 4760 10840 4757 10834
      4758 10831 4742 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 252DEG 35KT 4750 10856 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Latest analysis shows circulation center and axis of Pacific
upper-level trof has reached the WA/OR coast and is expected to
make somewhat slow but steady progress eastward overnight.
Moist southwest flow aloft along the leading edge of the trof
combined with easterly surface winds bringing low-level moisture
have set the stage for another round of thunderstorms this
aftn/eve across central MT. Most parameters (CAPE, 0-6km wind
shear, lifted index etc.) are well within the range for strong to
severe storms, but will have to break the shallow low-level
inversion that was still evident on the special balloon sounding
we did at midday. We still expect that break to occur, but it may
be later this aftn or early eve. Additional support for severe
weather will come from the arrival of stronger jet stream winds
(100-115 mph) now through this evening. Morning forecast models
did shift the jet's core (115-125mph) to the west side of the
Divide from earlier runs, so jet's contribution in our area may
be reduced, but should be sufficient to help boost some storm
development.

Models continue to indicate slow approach of a surface cold front
from the Pacific system, LCL not making it east of the Rocky Mtn
Front until mid-late evening as cold air push behind it is not
particularly strong.  That may help storms persist a bit longer in
our region as unstable conditions persist ahead of the front. Most
convective activity will dissipate across the central counties by
midnight, but scattered showers and a few storms will linger along
the Hiline through the overnight hours. Southwest flow aloft
continues on Sat as the trof axis moves to the ID Panhandle, so most
locations will see another round of showers and some thunderstorms
Sat aftn.  With less instability behind the front, best chances for
severe storms move to eastern MT tomorrow, and we'll see more of the
short-lived, pulse-type storms with only marginal threat for gusty
outflow winds and small hail.  The trof axis finally reaches our
area on Sun, bringing mostly dry conditions. Forecast on track for
cooler temps through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s on Sat/Sun.
Waranauskas

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A somewhat dry and breezy westerly
flow aloft will move into the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. The resulting downsloping winds will keep North Central
Montana dry through this period, but a disturbance will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over Southwest Montana. A low
pressure center will then move out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting
moist and unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana will bring a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area during
this time. Temperatures may cool enough to cause minor snow
accumulation above mountain pass level, but significant impacts are
unlikely. A high pressure ridge will then amplify over the central
United States, which will shift the flow a bit farther west and
focus the bulk of the showers/storms more so over Western Montana
for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will not fluctuate much
during the period. Slightly above normal temperatures will fall to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, but they will warm back
above normal by Friday as the high pressure ridge builds into the
area.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue over north-central
Montana this evening. Some storms will be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds especially near KLWT, KGTF and KHVR.
Additional thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail near
KCTB and KHLN. An isolated shower is possible at KBZN. Storms should
weaken and dissipate after 04z. Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
are possible in and near thunderstorms along with gusty erratic
winds. There may be low clouds after 06z but confidence is low on
cig heights. A few showers are possible on Saturday, especially in
the mountains, otherwise VFR conditions are expected after 12z. MLS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  67  44  71 /  30  30  20  10
CTB  51  65  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  58  67  47  72 /  30  40  30  10
BZN  53  69  44  71 /  20  40  30  20
WEY  48  61  39  61 /  10  40  30  20
DLN  53  66  43  69 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  55  72  47  72 /  60  40  20   0
LWT  54  67  46  70 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
614 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             8 S HIGHWOOD            47.47N 110.79W
06/10/2016  E2.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2-INCH HAIL...TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
620 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             4 NE WINIFRED           47.60N 109.30W
06/10/2016  E0.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
628 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE DENTON            47.30N 109.85W
06/10/2016  M55 MPH          FERGUS             MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            55 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF DENTON.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
649 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             2 W SUFFOLK             47.47N 109.40W
06/10/2016  M2.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
651 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     WALL CLOUD       1 SE SUFFOLK            47.46N 109.34W
06/10/2016                   FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
652 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE DENTON            47.35N 109.87W
06/10/2016                   FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

MLS