Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Great Falls, MT

021 
WWUS55 KTFX 110402
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1002 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTC027-110415-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-160611T0415Z/
FERGUS MT-
1002 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY...

AT 1002 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
WINIFRED...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINIFRED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 10959 4756 10975 4773 10950 4751 10931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 237DEG 35KT 4752 10955 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
916 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorm threat has diminished along and west of a
Great Falls to Havre line as cooler air has moved in behind a cold
front. Have therefore cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
those areas. However, thunderstorm activity still has the
potential to produce strong winds and hail, especially along the
clearing line over Judith Basin and Fergus Counties, so will keep
the watch in effect for those areas. Storm strength is weakening
somewhat, so will keep an eye on the situation. Otherwise, the
main band of showers and any lingering storms will become focused
along the Hi-Line after midnight, as gusty westerly winds spread
across North Central Montana. Only isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected in the southwest.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue over north-central
Montana this evening. Some storms will be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds especially near KLWT, KGTF and KHVR.
Additional thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail near
KCTB and KHLN. An isolated shower is possible at KBZN. Storms should
weaken and dissipate after 04z. Periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
are possible in and near thunderstorms along with gusty erratic
winds. There may be low clouds after 06z but confidence is low on
cig heights. A few showers are possible on Saturday, especially in
the mountains, otherwise VFR conditions are expected after 12z. MLS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
Latest analysis shows circulation center and axis of Pacific
upper-level trof has reached the WA/OR coast and is expected to
make somewhat slow but steady progress eastward overnight.
Moist southwest flow aloft along the leading edge of the trof
combined with easterly surface winds bringing low-level moisture
have set the stage for another round of thunderstorms this
aftn/eve across central MT. Most parameters (CAPE, 0-6km wind
shear, lifted index etc.) are well within the range for strong to
severe storms, but will have to break the shallow low-level
inversion that was still evident on the special balloon sounding
we did at midday. We still expect that break to occur, but it may
be later this aftn or early eve. Additional support for severe
weather will come from the arrival of stronger jet stream winds
(100-115 mph) now through this evening. Morning forecast models
did shift the jet's core (115-125mph) to the west side of the
Divide from earlier runs, so jet's contribution in our area may
be reduced, but should be sufficient to help boost some storm
development.

Models continue to indicate slow approach of a surface cold front
from the Pacific system, LCL not making it east of the Rocky Mtn
Front until mid-late evening as cold air push behind it is not
particularly strong.  That may help storms persist a bit longer in
our region as unstable conditions persist ahead of the front. Most
convective activity will dissipate across the central counties by
midnight, but scattered showers and a few storms will linger along
the Hiline through the overnight hours. Southwest flow aloft
continues on Sat as the trof axis moves to the ID Panhandle, so most
locations will see another round of showers and some thunderstorms
Sat aftn.  With less instability behind the front, best chances for
severe storms move to eastern MT tomorrow, and we'll see more of the
short-lived, pulse-type storms with only marginal threat for gusty
outflow winds and small hail.  The trof axis finally reaches our
area on Sun, bringing mostly dry conditions. Forecast on track for
cooler temps through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s on Sat/Sun.
Waranauskas

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A somewhat dry and breezy westerly
flow aloft will move into the forecast area Sunday night into
Monday. The resulting downsloping winds will keep North Central
Montana dry through this period, but a disturbance will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over Southwest Montana. A low
pressure center will then move out of the Gulf of Alaska and south
along the Pacific Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting
moist and unstable southwest flow aloft over Montana will bring a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area during
this time. Temperatures may cool enough to cause minor snow
accumulation above mountain pass level, but significant impacts are
unlikely. A high pressure ridge will then amplify over the central
United States, which will shift the flow a bit farther west and
focus the bulk of the showers/storms more so over Western Montana
for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will not fluctuate much
during the period. Slightly above normal temperatures will fall to
slightly below normal through Wednesday, but they will warm back
above normal by Friday as the high pressure ridge builds into the
area.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  65  43  71 /  60  30  20  10
CTB  52  65  39  66 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  57  67  46  72 /  60  40  30  10
BZN  55  70  43  71 /  20  40  30  20
WEY  50  63  38  61 /  10  40  30  20
DLN  54  66  42  69 /  20  50  30  10
HVR  55  70  46  72 /  70  40  20   0
LWT  55  64  45  70 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             5 WNW HILGER            47.29N 109.46W
06/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. SMALL TREE BRANCHES
            AROUND 1 INCH BROKEN OFF.

&&

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
753 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ048-049-110230-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-EASTERN TETON MT-
753 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TETON AND CENTRAL
LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 752 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
AUGUSTA...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHOTEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOTEAU...FAIRFIELD AND AUGUSTA.

LAT...LON 4740 11237 4755 11255 4790 11208 4768 11180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 231DEG 39KT 4753 11237

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
802 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             6 NNE HILGER            47.33N 109.31W
06/10/2016  M1.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKEN WINDOW.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
803 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             6 NNE HILGER            47.33N 109.31W
06/10/2016  M1.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
816 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ013-050-051-110300-
FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
816 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU...NORTH
CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN FERGUS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
MDT...

AT 816 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON...SQUARE BUTTE AND COFFEE CREEK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4716 11034 4737 11051 4768 10989 4737 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 239DEG 33KT 4727 11030

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

MTZ011-044-045-110415-
TOOLE MT-HILL MT-LIBERTY MT-
935 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 934 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF LOTHAIR...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHESTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...JOPLIN...INVERNESS AND TIBER DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4822 11114 4834 11134 4892 11067 4874 11036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 221DEG 45KT 4834 11116

COULSTON