Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Great Falls, MT

968 
WWUS55 KTFX 092155
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTC013-015-027-045-092215-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160609T2215Z/
CHOUTEAU MT-CASCADE MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-FERGUS MT-
355 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU...EAST CENTRAL CASCADE...NORTHWESTERN
JUDITH BASIN AND WESTERN FERGUS COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GEYSER...OR
ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A
STRONGER STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF RAYNESFORD, ALSO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. 

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GEYSER...RAYNESFORD...SQUARE BUTTE AND COFFEE CREEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4707 11070 4719 11089 4763 11037 4738 10997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 227DEG 23KT 4738 11039 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
235 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...Moist unstable southwest flow aloft
continues. The airmass is very unstable and thunderstorms have
developed over a large portion of southwest and central Montana.
The area is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 pm. The
greatest threat for severe weather continues across Meagher,
Judith Basin, Fergus, Hill, and Blaine counties. Convective
activity should gradually end by 10 pm with a few showers
lingering overnight over the eastern portion of the county warning
area. The upper trof moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Friday morning and will continue to provide the moist southwest
flow aloft. The result will be another round of thunderstorms
developing Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms
could also become strong. The upper trof moves slowly across the
western U.S. Saturday and will drag a cold front across the area
resulting in yet another round of afternoon thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages Friday but will
drop to near seasonal averages Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...Lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to be come more isolated to scattered Sat night as a
cold front pushes across the region. Enough cold air is present with
this front that an isolated high elevation snow shower is still
possible...although impacts and accumulations are expected to be
low. Models not playing friendly during the long term forecast. Euro
bring dry westerly downslope for Sunday...while the GFS has started
a drying trend...although hangs on to a few thunderstorms across a
stall frontal boundary in the eastern portions of the CWA. Kept in
slight to chance pops along this boundary...but started trimming
pops elsewhere. Dry westerly flow still looks to push in
Monday...although GFS is hinting at some thunderstorms across the
Lewistown area due to some weak instability. Differences in models
continue into mid next week. Another large pacific nw trough sets up
bringing us moist sw flow at times. Euro wants to dive this trough a
little further south...where the GFS solution brings it north into
Canada. A further south solution would provide slightly more active
weather than the GFS. Euro solution would be a similar pattern to
what we are seeing currently. And given that pattern has provided
our CWA with afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms...left in at least slight pops for similar convective
activity next week...however...this pattern will need to be kept on
eye one for any shifts towards a wetter or more dry bias. Previous
model runs also indicated windy conditions to start the week. Latest
runs have backed off slightly on this...however...breezy winds...now
less than 50 knots...could be possible starting Sunday...into
Monday..and possibly found at times into mid next week. Best areas
for breezy conditions will be along the foothills of the Rocky
Mountain Front...and the adjacent high plains. Temperatures look to
remain near to perhaps slightly below normal. If the euro solution
holds for Sunday...highs may get into the 70s instead of just upper
60s as previously thought. And almost all next week highs will
return to near normal readings in the 70s...although a cold front
could bring slightly cooler temps on Wednesday. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1724Z.
Primarily VFR are expected over the next 24-hours as SW flow
aloft strengthens. Scattered showers and TSRA are expected this
afternoon and evening, especially between 20Z/Thu and 03Z/Fri.
Brief surface wind gusts up to 30-50 knots are possible in/near
TSRA, as are brief MVFR. The best chance for showers and TSRA
exists along and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KDLN. Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  82  54  68 /  30  40  50  40
CTB  47  73  49  63 /  10  40  60  30
HLN  54  85  56  70 /  50  40  30  50
BZN  50  88  51  74 /  60  30  20  40
WEY  42  76  47  64 /  10  10  10  30
DLN  49  84  51  69 /  20  10  20  40
HVR  49  83  53  72 /  60  20  60  50
LWT  50  83  53  71 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239 until 10 PM MDT for Hill, Cascade,
Meagher, Fergus, Judith Basin, Blaine, Choteau, Gallatin, and
Broadwater counties.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
229 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTZ051-092115-
FERGUS MT-
229 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

AT 229 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FERGUS
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4739 10859 4757 10864 4761 10844 4758 10842
      4760 10840 4757 10838 4757 10832 4741 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 260DEG 31KT 4750 10851

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
246 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             1 WSW CHINOOK           48.58N 109.25W
06/09/2016  E0.25 INCH       BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING JUST WEST OF CHINOOK.

&&

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTZ047-092200-
BLAINE MT-
313 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

AT 310 PM...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES EAST OF FORT BELKNAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL BLAINE
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4856 10835 4847 10834 4841 10849 4856 10864
      4871 10833 4861 10832 4858 10831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 237DEG 37KT 4853 10847

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
314 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             12 NNE FORESTGROVE      47.15N 109.00W
06/09/2016  M1.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E60 MPH          FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
318 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             3 W GEYSER              47.27N 110.56W
06/09/2016  M1.25 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WITH 0.48 INCHES RAINFALL.
            SMALLER HAIL COVERED GROUND

&&

PN