Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Great Falls, MT

137 
WWUS55 KTFX 092225
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTC027-045-092235-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160609T2245Z/
JUDITH BASIN MT-FERGUS MT-
425 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN AND
WEST CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4717 11045 4731 11049 4748 10996 4720 10980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 240DEG 43KT 4728 11028 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
235 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...Moist unstable southwest flow aloft
continues. The airmass is very unstable and thunderstorms have
developed over a large portion of southwest and central Montana.
The area is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 pm. The
greatest threat for severe weather continues across Meagher,
Judith Basin, Fergus, Hill, and Blaine counties. Convective
activity should gradually end by 10 pm with a few showers
lingering overnight over the eastern portion of the county warning
area. The upper trof moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Friday morning and will continue to provide the moist southwest
flow aloft. The result will be another round of thunderstorms
developing Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms
could also become strong. The upper trof moves slowly across the
western U.S. Saturday and will drag a cold front across the area
resulting in yet another round of afternoon thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages Friday but will
drop to near seasonal averages Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...Lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to be come more isolated to scattered Sat night as a
cold front pushes across the region. Enough cold air is present with
this front that an isolated high elevation snow shower is still
possible...although impacts and accumulations are expected to be
low. Models not playing friendly during the long term forecast. Euro
bring dry westerly downslope for Sunday...while the GFS has started
a drying trend...although hangs on to a few thunderstorms across a
stall frontal boundary in the eastern portions of the CWA. Kept in
slight to chance pops along this boundary...but started trimming
pops elsewhere. Dry westerly flow still looks to push in
Monday...although GFS is hinting at some thunderstorms across the
Lewistown area due to some weak instability. Differences in models
continue into mid next week. Another large pacific nw trough sets up
bringing us moist sw flow at times. Euro wants to dive this trough a
little further south...where the GFS solution brings it north into
Canada. A further south solution would provide slightly more active
weather than the GFS. Euro solution would be a similar pattern to
what we are seeing currently. And given that pattern has provided
our CWA with afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms...left in at least slight pops for similar convective
activity next week...however...this pattern will need to be kept on
eye one for any shifts towards a wetter or more dry bias. Previous
model runs also indicated windy conditions to start the week. Latest
runs have backed off slightly on this...however...breezy winds...now
less than 50 knots...could be possible starting Sunday...into
Monday..and possibly found at times into mid next week. Best areas
for breezy conditions will be along the foothills of the Rocky
Mountain Front...and the adjacent high plains. Temperatures look to
remain near to perhaps slightly below normal. If the euro solution
holds for Sunday...highs may get into the 70s instead of just upper
60s as previously thought. And almost all next week highs will
return to near normal readings in the 70s...although a cold front
could bring slightly cooler temps on Wednesday. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1724Z.
Primarily VFR are expected over the next 24-hours as SW flow
aloft strengthens. Scattered showers and TSRA are expected this
afternoon and evening, especially between 20Z/Thu and 03Z/Fri.
Brief surface wind gusts up to 30-50 knots are possible in/near
TSRA, as are brief MVFR. The best chance for showers and TSRA
exists along and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KDLN. Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  82  54  68 /  30  40  50  40
CTB  47  73  49  63 /  10  40  60  30
HLN  54  85  56  70 /  50  40  30  50
BZN  50  88  51  74 /  60  30  20  40
WEY  42  76  47  64 /  10  10  10  30
DLN  49  84  51  69 /  20  10  20  40
HVR  49  83  53  72 /  60  20  60  50
LWT  50  83  53  71 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239 until 10 PM MDT for Hill, Cascade,
Meagher, Fergus, Judith Basin, Blaine, Choteau, Gallatin, and
Broadwater counties.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
314 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             12 NNE FORESTGROVE      47.15N 109.00W
06/09/2016  M1.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E60 MPH          FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
318 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             3 W GEYSER              47.27N 110.56W
06/09/2016  M1.25 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WITH 0.48 INCHES RAINFALL.
            SMALLER HAIL COVERED GROUND

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             11 N GRASS RANGE        47.18N 108.78W
06/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             BOX ELDER               48.32N 110.01W
06/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       HILL               MT   PUBLIC

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
411 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             3 SE GEYSER             47.24N 110.46W
06/09/2016  E0.70 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AROUND DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

BRUSDA