Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 9, 2016Fergus County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 9, 2016, 3:42 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 16 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2016, 3:42 PM MDT (21:42 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2016, 3:58 PM MDT
In force: 16 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Fergus County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 9, 1:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 25 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -250 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1305 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

977 
WUUS55 KTFX 092142
SVRTFX
MTC027-092215-
/O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0017.160609T2142Z-160609T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 342 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF ROY...OR 34 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZORTMAN...MOVING EAST
  AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 191 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 86.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4735 10896 4753 10904 4763 10860 4761 10857
      4762 10851 4760 10850 4761 10844 4758 10842
      4760 10840 4757 10834 4758 10831 4743 10833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 255DEG 43KT 4747 10885 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PN

1 follow-up statement

896 
WWUS55 KTFX 092158
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTC027-092206-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160609T2215Z/
FERGUS MT-
358 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4735 10896 4753 10904 4763 10860 4761 10857
      4762 10851 4760 10850 4761 10844 4758 10842
      4760 10840 4757 10834 4758 10831 4743 10833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 255DEG 43KT 4751 10861 

$$

PN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 9, 2:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 2:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
235 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...Moist unstable southwest flow aloft
continues. The airmass is very unstable and thunderstorms have
developed over a large portion of southwest and central Montana.
The area is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 pm. The
greatest threat for severe weather continues across Meagher,
Judith Basin, Fergus, Hill, and Blaine counties. Convective
activity should gradually end by 10 pm with a few showers
lingering overnight over the eastern portion of the county warning
area. The upper trof moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Friday morning and will continue to provide the moist southwest
flow aloft. The result will be another round of thunderstorms
developing Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms
could also become strong. The upper trof moves slowly across the
western U.S. Saturday and will drag a cold front across the area
resulting in yet another round of afternoon thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages Friday but will
drop to near seasonal averages Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...Lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to be come more isolated to scattered Sat night as a
cold front pushes across the region. Enough cold air is present with
this front that an isolated high elevation snow shower is still
possible...although impacts and accumulations are expected to be
low. Models not playing friendly during the long term forecast. Euro
bring dry westerly downslope for Sunday...while the GFS has started
a drying trend...although hangs on to a few thunderstorms across a
stall frontal boundary in the eastern portions of the CWA. Kept in
slight to chance pops along this boundary...but started trimming
pops elsewhere. Dry westerly flow still looks to push in
Monday...although GFS is hinting at some thunderstorms across the
Lewistown area due to some weak instability. Differences in models
continue into mid next week. Another large pacific nw trough sets up
bringing us moist sw flow at times. Euro wants to dive this trough a
little further south...where the GFS solution brings it north into
Canada. A further south solution would provide slightly more active
weather than the GFS. Euro solution would be a similar pattern to
what we are seeing currently. And given that pattern has provided
our CWA with afternoon and evening chances for showers and
thunderstorms...left in at least slight pops for similar convective
activity next week...however...this pattern will need to be kept on
eye one for any shifts towards a wetter or more dry bias. Previous
model runs also indicated windy conditions to start the week. Latest
runs have backed off slightly on this...however...breezy winds...now
less than 50 knots...could be possible starting Sunday...into
Monday..and possibly found at times into mid next week. Best areas
for breezy conditions will be along the foothills of the Rocky
Mountain Front...and the adjacent high plains. Temperatures look to
remain near to perhaps slightly below normal. If the euro solution
holds for Sunday...highs may get into the 70s instead of just upper
60s as previously thought. And almost all next week highs will
return to near normal readings in the 70s...although a cold front
could bring slightly cooler temps on Wednesday. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1724Z.
Primarily VFR are expected over the next 24-hours as SW flow
aloft strengthens. Scattered showers and TSRA are expected this
afternoon and evening, especially between 20Z/Thu and 03Z/Fri.
Brief surface wind gusts up to 30-50 knots are possible in/near
TSRA, as are brief MVFR. The best chance for showers and TSRA
exists along and east of a line from KHVR to KGTF to KDLN. Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  82  54  68 /  30  40  50  40
CTB  47  73  49  63 /  10  40  60  30
HLN  54  85  56  70 /  50  40  30  50
BZN  50  88  51  74 /  60  30  20  40
WEY  42  76  47  64 /  10  10  10  30
DLN  49  84  51  69 /  20  10  20  40
HVR  49  83  53  72 /  60  20  60  50
LWT  50  83  53  71 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239 until 10 PM MDT for Hill, Cascade,
Meagher, Fergus, Judith Basin, Blaine, Choteau, Gallatin, and
Broadwater counties.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 9, 2:46 PM MDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
246 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             1 WSW CHINOOK           48.58N 109.25W
06/09/2016  E0.25 INCH       BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING JUST WEST OF CHINOOK.

&&

BRUSDA

Special weather statement, Jun 9, 3:13 PM MDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

MTZ047-092200-
BLAINE MT-
313 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

AT 310 PM...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES EAST OF FORT BELKNAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL BLAINE
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4856 10835 4847 10834 4841 10849 4856 10864
      4871 10833 4861 10832 4858 10831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 237DEG 37KT 4853 10847

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:14 PM MDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
314 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             12 NNE FORESTGROVE      47.15N 109.00W
06/09/2016  M1.75 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PN

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:15 PM MDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N GRASS RANGE        47.17N 108.80W
06/09/2016  E60 MPH          FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:18 PM MDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
318 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             3 W GEYSER              47.27N 110.56W
06/09/2016  M1.25 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WITH 0.48 INCHES RAINFALL.
            SMALLER HAIL COVERED GROUND

&&

PN

Local storm report, Jun 9, 3:36 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 PM MDT THU JUN 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             11 N GRASS RANGE        47.18N 108.78W
06/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 8, 6:22 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Glacier	38 min
Jun 8, 6:28 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Jefferson	47 min
Jun 8, 6:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Teton	31 min
Jun 8, 6:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	47 min
Jun 8, 8:44 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	31 min
Jun 8, 9:42 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	48 min
Jun 9, 1:13 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	47 min
Jun 9, 1:19 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	41 min
Jun 9, 1:22 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	38 min
Jun 9, 1:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	53 min
Jun 9, 1:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	48 min
Jun 9, 1:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	47 min
Jun 9, 1:55 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	38 min
Jun 9, 2:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	64 min
Jun 9, 2:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Hill	37 min
Jun 9, 2:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	42 min
Jun 9, 2:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Judith Basin, Meagher	66 min
Jun 9, 2:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Cascade, Judith Basin, Meagher	39 min
Jun 9, 2:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Petroleum	46 min
Jun 9, 2:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	29 min
Jun 9, 2:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher	56 min
Jun 9, 2:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	54 min
Jun 9, 2:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	33 min
Jun 9, 3:13 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Blaine	47 min
Jun 9, 3:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	57 min
Jun 9, 3:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Judith Basin, Meagher	54 min
Jun 9, 4:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	13 min
Jun 9, 4:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	34 min
Jun 9, 5:03 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	27 min
Jun 9, 5:30 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Petroleum	30 min
Jun 9, 5:43 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.