Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 14

February 15, 201633 parishes in Louisiana; 45 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 15, 2016, 9:30 AM CST for 33 parishes in Louisiana; 45 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2016, 9:30 AM CST (15:30 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2016, 5:19 PM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 78 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Winston County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

64 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 9:36 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAvoyelles, Evangeline, Rapides54 min
Feb 15, 10:01 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANConcordia59 min
Feb 15, 10:10 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds65 min
Feb 15, 10:28 AM CSTTornado WarningLCHAvoyelles17 min
Feb 15, 10:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana44 min
Feb 15, 10:56 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Franklin, Jefferson64 min
Feb 15, 10:59 AM CSTTornado WarningJANHinds32 min
Feb 15, 11:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana40 min
Feb 15, 11:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGreene, Perry, Wayne40 min
Feb 15, 11:08 AM CSTTornado WarningJANMadison33 min
Feb 15, 11:10 AM CSTTornado WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln38 min
Feb 15, 11:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison59 min
Feb 15, 11:17 AM CSTTornado WarningMOBGreene28 min
Feb 15, 11:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Feliciana, West Feliciana29 min
Feb 15, 11:33 AM CSTTornado WarningLCHSaint Landry27 min
Feb 15, 11:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Madison, Rankin, Scott82 min
Feb 15, 11:44 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Feliciana, West Feliciana31 min
Feb 15, 11:46 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGreene, Wayne44 min
Feb 15, 11:50 AM CSTTornado WarningJANRankin14 min
Feb 15, 11:58 AM CSTTornado WarningJANCopiah, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson62 min
Feb 15, 12:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXJackson14 min
Feb 15, 12:06 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana24 min
Feb 15, 12:07 PM CSTTornado WarningJANLeake30 min
Feb 15, 12:13 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Feliciana, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa32 min
Feb 15, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WarningJANAttala, Winston43 min
Feb 15, 12:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana33 min
Feb 15, 12:40 PM CSTTornado WarningJANSimpson, Smith65 min
Feb 15, 12:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington48 min
Feb 15, 12:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge, Greene28 min
Feb 15, 12:50 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXPike25 min
Feb 15, 1:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNeshoba39 min
Feb 15, 1:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lincoln58 min
Feb 15, 1:14 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Lafayette, Saint Landry, Saint Martin31 min
Feb 15, 1:19 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXWalthall26 min
Feb 15, 1:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Lafayette, Saint Landry, Saint Martin24 min
Feb 15, 1:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion52 min
Feb 15, 1:25 PM CSTTornado WarningJANMarion38 min
Feb 15, 1:26 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANJasper, Smith52 min
Feb 15, 1:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Jefferson Davis62 min
Feb 15, 1:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Avoyelles, Evangeline, Saint Landry25 min
Feb 15, 1:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClarke, Lauderdale19 min
Feb 15, 1:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXHancock, Harrison32 min
Feb 15, 1:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson44 min
Feb 15, 1:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAllen, Evangeline32 min
Feb 15, 2:08 PM CSTTornado WarningJANSimpson, Smith33 min
Feb 15, 2:10 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANJasper, Newton16 min
Feb 15, 2:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHCalcasieu, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion45 min
Feb 15, 2:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston24 min
Feb 15, 2:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSmith18 min
Feb 15, 2:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis16 min
Feb 15, 2:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJones41 min
Feb 15, 2:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJasper43 min
Feb 15, 2:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNewton35 min
Feb 15, 2:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge, Greene, Perry, Wayne52 min
Feb 15, 2:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge31 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXHarrison, Jackson28 min
Feb 15, 2:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClarke, Lauderdale70 min
Feb 15, 2:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Vermilion54 min
Feb 15, 3:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper, Neshoba47 min
Feb 15, 3:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge, Greene, Perry, Stone, Wayne41 min
Feb 15, 3:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXHarrison34 min
Feb 15, 3:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHIberia, Saint Martin38 min
Feb 15, 3:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHIberia, Saint Martin, St. Mary23 min
Feb 15, 3:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge, Greene31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 55 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 238 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
55 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
733 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

734 
WWUS20 KWNS 151528
SEL4  
SPC WW 151528
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 930 AM UNTIL 600
  PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND...AND HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 5:27 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston and 11 more3 hr
Feb 15, 7:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Catahoula, Concordia and 8 more3 hr
Feb 15, 11:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa and 1 more115 min
Feb 15, 1:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston and 11 more114 min
Feb 15, 4:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Jackson2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2016Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.