Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 101
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2016, 11:50 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2016, 11:50 AM CST (17:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2016, 1:45 PM CST
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 72 counties
Autauga County, AL, Baldwin County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Amite County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Newton County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 569 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 649 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 257 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 320 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.4
The text
As transmitted.
072
ACUS11 KWNS 151750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151750
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND CNTRL
MS AND SE LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...
VALID 151750Z - 151945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE WILL SPREAD EWD FROM SCNTRL MS INTO SRN AND CNTRL AL AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO THE EAST OF WW 14.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR JACKSON MS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE SFC
LOW INTO SRN LA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH. A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
LOW INTO CNTRL AL. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...STRONGLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SRN AL. THE
AXIS OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP IS SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL WITH A
LOOPED HODOGRAPH AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 475 TO 500
M2/S2. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. TORNADIC STORMS MAY BE
MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL AND
ALSO ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL AL. SUPERCELLS AND
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30388629 30448864 30248966 30299084 30669137 31329129
31989078 32678976 32908746 32748620 32258550 31678526
30618551 30388629SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 12:02 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Choctaw and 27 more | 9 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler and 28 more | 114 min |
| Feb 15, 4:24 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Butler, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 15, 5:27 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston and 11 more | 3 hr |
| Feb 15, 7:41 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Catahoula, Concordia and 8 more | 3 hr |
| Feb 15, 9:30 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 27 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.