Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

206 
WWUS54 KJAN 151955
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

MSC023-075-152005-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-160215T2030Z/
LAUDERDALE MS-CLARKE MS-
155 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE AND
NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3209 8873 3222 8876 3253 8848 3253 8840
      3218 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 221DEG 30KT 3229 8857 

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1109 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH 14 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM AROUND NATCHEZ NEWD BETWEEN VKS AND
JAN TO NEAR WINONA. MOST OF THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DELTA THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY RESIDES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20, THOUGH FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ON THE ORDER OF UP TO 7 C/KM) EXIST OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH THE ENTIRE WATCH IN OUR AREA IS A TORNADO WATCH,
THE GREATER THREAT FOR ANY TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE STORMS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. FARTHER NORTH, HAIL WILL BE A GREATER THREAT DUE TO
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES, THOUGH SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS COULD ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THAT AREA EITHER, BUT RIGHT
NOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS PREVENTING
GREATER DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF I-20. DEWPOINTS AROUND COLUMBUS
REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THIS POINT.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA, IT STILL APPEARS
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO CLEAR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TORNADO WATCH EARLY.
FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT, WITH ADDITIONAL INCREMENTAL UPDATES
TO COME THROUGH THE DAY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT, AND TORNADOES MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NW/NLY. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY END RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING.
IMPROVING CIGS/VISBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TUES. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TEXAS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND THIS
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST 1000-1500 MU CAPE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500-1000 POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH...EAST OF I-55. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ONLY MAKING IT UP TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN RISK
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 6.5 C/KM...QUARTER TO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPP34 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTH TO AROUND 70S IN THE SOUTH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN ONLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING./15/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN CHANCES NOT REALLY IN THE PICTURE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THE LAST GASP OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR A WHILE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL BE TRANSLATING OFF TO
THE EAST AND A QUICK WARMING TREND (THAT SHOULD CULMINATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY) WILL HAVE BEGUN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD (ESPECIALLY AFTER WEDNESDAY) WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL A STOUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY CHILLS CONDITIONS BACK
DOWN. OF COURSE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THIS FROPA...BUT
REALLY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. OF COURSE IN THE WARM ANTICIPATED REGIME THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT TO SAY WHETHER ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY OVER THIS STRETCH BECAUSE IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY MOST
MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL REMAIN SHY OF 80 DEGREES. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/15/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041-
161600-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

LAZ016-024-025-MSZ031>033-036>039-042>047-161600-
MADISON LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

LAZ026-MSZ048>066-072>074-161600-
CONCORDIA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TORNADO          4 SE THOMASTOWN         32.82N 89.61W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ALONG MS HWY 429

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     TORNADO          10 SE HAZLEHURST        31.75N 90.28W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME DAMAGED IN THE STRONGHOPE COMMUNITY.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TORNADO          2 N WESSON              31.73N 90.40W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 51 NORTH OF BARNER RD.

1212 PM     TORNADO          WESSON                  31.70N 90.40W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO WESSON ATTENDANCE CENTER.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TORNADO          4 SE THOMASTOWN         32.82N 89.62W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE ROOF OF A SHOP BUILDING WAS DAMAGED

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW SINGLETON         32.83N 89.58W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED AND CHICKEN HOUSES DAMAGED AT COOPER RD AND
            WAGGONER RD NEAR THE CONWAY COMMUNITY

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW LOUISVILLE         33.07N 89.12W
02/15/2016                   WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HINZE ROAD.

&&

AW