Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Jackson, MS

February 15, 20166 counties in Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 15, 2016, 1:05 PM CST for 6 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 58 min. 7 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2016, 1:05 PM CST (19:05 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2016, 2:03 PM CST
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Feb 15, 1:18 PM CST	TSTM WND GST 95	5 Nnw Loyd Star, MS	* 2 INJ * AN INTENSE MICROBURST OCCURRED ALONG THE LINCOLN/COPIAH CO LINE. DAMAGE OCCURED JUST W OF JACKSON-LIBERTY RD AND N OF NORTON-ASSINK RD. HERE A MOBILE HOME WAS ROLLED MULTIPLE TIMES AND DESTROYED. A COUPLE MINOR INJURIES OCCURRED AT THIS LOCATION.
Feb 15, 1:19 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	5 N Loyd Star, MS	EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MOBILE HOME DESTROYED WITH MINOR INJURIES ON JACKSON LIBERTY ROAD
Feb 15, 1:20 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	6 N Loyd Star, MS	5-6 HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE. 3-4 SHEDS WERE ALSO DESTROYED. BOTH OCCURRED ON RED STAR ROAD. TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ONTO POWERLINES IN THIS AREA.
Feb 15, 1:30 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	1 S Brookhaven, MS	A TREE FELL ON A HOME ON FULTON ST
Feb 15, 1:30 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	1 Sw Wesson, MS	EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL TREES BLOCKING ROAD NEAR COLIN
Feb 15, 2:08 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	1 Sw Wesson, MS	EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL TREES BLOCKING ROAD NEAR COLIN
Feb 15, 2:08 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	5 N Loyd Star, MS	EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MOBILE HOME DESTROYED WITH MINOR INJURIES ON JACKSON LIBERTY ROAD

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 13 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 15, 9:30 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 55 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 733 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

933 
WUUS54 KJAN 151905
SVRJAN
MSC021-029-037-063-077-085-152015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0050.160215T1905Z-160215T2015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 105 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR PEYTON TO NEAR MCBRIDE TO UNION CHURCH TO NEW
  HOPE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT HILL AROUND 110 PM CST.
  ALLEN AND BARLOW AROUND 115 PM CST.
  CASEYVILLE AROUND 120 PM CST.
  GLANCY AND VAUGHN AROUND 125 PM CST.
  LOYD STAR AROUND 130 PM CST.
  HAZLEHURST AROUND 135 PM CST.
  BROOKHAVEN...MARTINSVILLE AND GALLMAN AROUND 140 PM CST.
  WESSON AROUND 145 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
GEORGETOWN AND BEAUREGARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3152 9090 3167 9088 3172 9086 3189 9083
      3195 9019 3194 9020 3193 9017 3191 9017
      3189 9014 3186 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013
      3180 9015 3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9013
      3170 9012 3153 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 258DEG 35KT 3179 9075 3174 9077 3169 9081 3157
9081

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

19

4 follow-up statements

662 
WWUS54 KJAN 151914
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

MSC021-063-151924-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
CLAIBORNE MS-JEFFERSON MS-
114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3152 9073 3161 9073 3171 9071 3190 9071
      3195 9019 3194 9020 3193 9017 3191 9017
      3189 9014 3186 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013
      3180 9015 3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9013
      3170 9012 3153 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 260DEG 49KT 3187 9053 3177 9060 3170 9062 3155
9066

$$

MSC029-037-077-085-152015-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
COPIAH MS-LAWRENCE MS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN MS-
114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR COPIAH...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLANCY TO NEAR ALLEN TO NEAR CASEYVILLE TO NEAR
MCCALL CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HAZLEHURST AND GLANCY AROUND 120 PM CST.
  MARTINSVILLE AND GALLMAN AROUND 125 PM CST.
  BROOKHAVEN AND WESSON AROUND 130 PM CST.
  HOPEWELL AROUND 135 PM CST.
  ROCKPORT...SONTAG AND OMA AROUND 145 PM CST.
  WANILLA AROUND 150 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
GEORGETOWN AND BEAUREGARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3152 9073 3161 9073 3171 9071 3190 9071
      3195 9019 3194 9020 3193 9017 3191 9017
      3189 9014 3186 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013
      3180 9015 3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9013
      3170 9012 3153 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 260DEG 49KT 3187 9053 3177 9060 3170 9062 3155
9066

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

19

773 
WWUS54 KJAN 151927 RRA
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

MSC037-151937-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
FRANKLIN MS-
127 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3152 9060 3165 9054 3192 9045 3195 9019
      3194 9020 3193 9017 3191 9017 3189 9014
      3186 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013 3180 9015
      3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9013 3170 9012
      3153 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 258DEG 35KT 3190 9039 3180 9046 3173 9048 3158
9052

$$

MSC029-077-085-152015-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
COPIAH MS-LAWRENCE MS-LINCOLN MS-
127 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND NORTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 127 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAZLEHURST TO NEAR GLANCY TO NEAR WESSON TO NEAR
VAUGHN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HAZLEHURST AROUND 135 PM CST.
  HOPEWELL AROUND 145 PM CST.
  ROCKPORT...SONTAG AND OMA AROUND 155 PM CST.
  WANILLA AROUND 200 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
GEORGETOWN AND BEAUREGARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3152 9060 3165 9054 3192 9045 3195 9019
      3194 9020 3193 9017 3191 9017 3189 9014
      3186 9013 3184 9016 3183 9013 3180 9015
      3179 9014 3179 9011 3177 9013 3170 9012
      3153 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 258DEG 35KT 3190 9039 3180 9046 3173 9048 3158
9052

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

19

853 
WWUS54 KJAN 151953
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

MSC029-085-152003-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
COPIAH MS-LINCOLN MS-
153 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3158 9024 3160 9021 3175 9016 3175 9015
      3176 9013 3170 9012 3153 9014 3153 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 268DEG 42KT 3172 9005 3162 9011 3151 9019 

$$

MSC077-152015-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
LAWRENCE MS-
153 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 153 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OMA TO NEAR WANILLA TO NEAR MONTICELLO...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3158 9024 3160 9021 3175 9016 3175 9015
      3176 9013 3170 9012 3153 9014 3153 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 268DEG 42KT 3172 9005 3162 9011 3151 9019 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

19

905 
WWUS54 KJAN 152003 RRA
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
203 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

MSC077-152013-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160215T2015Z/
LAWRENCE MS-
203 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3158 9024 3160 9021 3175 9016 3175 9015
      3176 9013 3170 9012 3153 9014 3153 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 258DEG 35KT 3174 8994 3164 9000 3153 9008 

$$

19

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 15, 11:09 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 11:09 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1109 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH 14 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM AROUND NATCHEZ NEWD BETWEEN VKS AND
JAN TO NEAR WINONA. MOST OF THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DELTA THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY RESIDES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20, THOUGH FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ON THE ORDER OF UP TO 7 C/KM) EXIST OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH THE ENTIRE WATCH IN OUR AREA IS A TORNADO WATCH,
THE GREATER THREAT FOR ANY TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE STORMS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF BECOMING
SURFACE BASED. FARTHER NORTH, HAIL WILL BE A GREATER THREAT DUE TO
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES, THOUGH SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS COULD ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THAT AREA EITHER, BUT RIGHT
NOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS PREVENTING
GREATER DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF I-20. DEWPOINTS AROUND COLUMBUS
REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THIS POINT.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA, IT STILL APPEARS
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO CLEAR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TORNADO WATCH EARLY.
FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT, WITH ADDITIONAL INCREMENTAL UPDATES
TO COME THROUGH THE DAY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT, AND TORNADOES MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NW/NLY. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY END RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING.
IMPROVING CIGS/VISBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TUES. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TEXAS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND THIS
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST 1000-1500 MU CAPE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500-1000 POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH...EAST OF I-55. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ONLY MAKING IT UP TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN RISK
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 6.5 C/KM...QUARTER TO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPP34 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTH TO AROUND 70S IN THE SOUTH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD...WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN ONLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING./15/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN CHANCES NOT REALLY IN THE PICTURE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THE LAST GASP OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR A WHILE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...THIS HIGH WILL BE TRANSLATING OFF TO
THE EAST AND A QUICK WARMING TREND (THAT SHOULD CULMINATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY) WILL HAVE BEGUN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD (ESPECIALLY AFTER WEDNESDAY) WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL A STOUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY CHILLS CONDITIONS BACK
DOWN. OF COURSE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THIS FROPA...BUT
REALLY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. OF COURSE IN THE WARM ANTICIPATED REGIME THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT TO SAY WHETHER ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY OVER THIS STRETCH BECAUSE IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY MOST
MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL REMAIN SHY OF 80 DEGREES. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/15/BB

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 9:53 AM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041-
161600-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

LAZ016-024-025-MSZ031>033-036>039-042>047-161600-
MADISON LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

LAZ026-MSZ048>066-072>074-161600-
CONCORDIA-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
953 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:12 PM CST, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1212 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     HAIL             1 SE OAK GROVE          32.66N 88.55W
02/15/2016  E0.75 INCH       KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DL

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:32 PM CST, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TORNADO          4 SE THOMASTOWN         32.82N 89.61W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED ALONG MS HWY 429

&&

DL

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:39 PM CST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     TORNADO          10 SE HAZLEHURST        31.75N 90.28W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME DAMAGED IN THE STRONGHOPE COMMUNITY.

&&

DCOX

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:42 PM CST, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TORNADO          2 N WESSON              31.73N 90.40W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 51 NORTH OF BARNER RD.

1212 PM     TORNADO          WESSON                  31.70N 90.40W
02/15/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO WESSON ATTENDANCE CENTER.

&&

AW

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:43 PM CST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TORNADO          4 SE THOMASTOWN         32.82N 89.62W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE ROOF OF A SHOP BUILDING WAS DAMAGED

&&

DL

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:51 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW SINGLETON         32.83N 89.58W
02/15/2016                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED AND CHICKEN HOUSES DAMAGED AT COOPER RD AND
            WAGGONER RD NEAR THE CONWAY COMMUNITY

&&

DL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 3:18 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Franklin	27 min
Feb 15, 4:30 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lincoln	30 min
Feb 15, 5:04 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lawrence	41 min
Feb 15, 5:37 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lincoln	38 min
Feb 15, 5:50 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Simpson	40 min
Feb 15, 6:05 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Copiah	40 min
Feb 15, 8:11 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Issaquena	49 min
Feb 15, 9:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper, Smith	66 min
Feb 15, 9:21 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Humphreys	39 min
Feb 15, 9:25 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Claiborne	50 min
Feb 15, 9:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Warren	62 min
Feb 15, 9:57 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Holmes	33 min
Feb 15, 10:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams	59 min
Feb 15, 10:05 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Grenada	40 min
Feb 15, 10:10 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds	65 min
Feb 15, 10:16 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Jasper	44 min
Feb 15, 10:29 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lauderdale	46 min
Feb 15, 10:56 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Newton	49 min
Feb 15, 10:56 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Franklin, Jefferson	64 min
Feb 15, 10:59 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Hinds	32 min
Feb 15, 11:08 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Madison	33 min
Feb 15, 11:10 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln	38 min
Feb 15, 11:16 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison	59 min
Feb 15, 11:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leake, Madison, Rankin, Scott	82 min
Feb 15, 11:50 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Rankin	14 min
Feb 15, 11:58 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Copiah, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson	62 min
Feb 15, 12:02 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Kemper	28 min
Feb 15, 12:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Leake	30 min
Feb 15, 12:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Attala, Winston	43 min
Feb 15, 12:40 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Simpson, Smith	65 min
Feb 15, 1:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Neshoba	39 min
Feb 15, 1:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Marion	38 min
Feb 15, 1:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	JAN	Jasper, Smith	52 min
Feb 15, 1:36 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clarke, Lauderdale	19 min
Feb 15, 1:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson	44 min
Feb 15, 2:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Simpson, Smith	33 min
Feb 15, 2:10 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	JAN	Jasper, Newton	16 min
Feb 15, 2:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Smith	18 min
Feb 15, 2:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis	16 min
Feb 15, 2:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jones	41 min
Feb 15, 2:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper	43 min
Feb 15, 2:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Newton	35 min
Feb 15, 2:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clarke, Lauderdale	70 min
Feb 15, 3:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Kemper, Neshoba	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.