Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396

July 18, 20166 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 18, 2016, 1:42 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 18, 2016, 1:42 PM EDT (17:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 18, 2016, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 80 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Morgan County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 18, 1:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Washington37 min
Jul 18, 2:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Washington52 min
Jul 18, 2:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Madison, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah and 1 more44 min
Jul 18, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton39 min
Jul 18, 3:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Warren27 min
Jul 18, 3:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Rappahannock38 min
Jul 18, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBucks50 min
Jul 18, 3:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery18 min
Jul 18, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford45 min
Jul 18, 3:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Harford52 min
Jul 18, 3:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester49 min
Jul 18, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery45 min
Jul 18, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles, Prince George's40 min
Jul 18, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's82 min
Jul 18, 4:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle46 min
Jul 18, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Greene, Madison, Orange45 min
Jul 18, 4:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle38 min
Jul 18, 5:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle57 min
Jul 18, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXOrange, Spotsylvania47 min
Jul 18, 5:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSaint Mary's15 min
Jul 18, 5:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIOcean24 min
Jul 18, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQSomerset40 min
Jul 18, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQSomerset, Wicomico, Worcester40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 200 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
200 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
18 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 18, 11:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Castle95 min
Jul 18, 3:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex66 min
Jul 18, 6:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSussex113 min
Jul 18, 12:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 7 more8 hr
Jul 18, 3:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 7 more84 min
Jul 18, 6:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris and 5 more86 min
Jul 18, 10:32 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis and 3 more118 min
Jul 18, 11:12 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego and 1 more9 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.