Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 896

June 13, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 2:51 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 13, 2016, 2:51 PM MDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 13, 2016, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 24 counties

Big Horn County, MT, Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Butte County, SD, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Platte County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 237 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251Jun 13, 3:45 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1496 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

275 
ACUS11 KWNS 132051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132051 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...ERN WY...WRN SD...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...

VALID 132051Z - 132145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
CONTINUES ACROSS SERN MT AND FAR ERN WY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB 21-23Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ALSO
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE ACROSS NERN WY AND ARE
POSING A SHORT-TERM THREAT PRIMARILY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
LINE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY INTO
FAR WRN SD...BEFORE APPROACHING A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS S-CNTRL MT...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE OVER YELLOWSTONE COUNTY
AND WILL LIKELY ENTER BIG HORN COUNTY IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
IMMEDIATE THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN E-SELY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN MT...AS BLX VWP
SAMPLED WEAK BUT VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO TSTM OCCURRENCE.
OTHERWISE...SVR THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 249 AND REMAIN HIGHEST WHERE THE
AIR MASS REMAINS UNPERTURBED.

..ROGERS.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   45000681 45070802 45310853 45870858 46450792 46810630
            46800486 46460426 45220323 43440295 41890286 41190441
            41190496 41800552 43450550 44390581 45000657 45000681

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 12:00 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Horn, Powder River	60 min
Jun 13, 12:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Prairie and 3 more	9 hr
Jun 13, 1:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more	53 min
Jun 13, 3:40 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 3 more	95 min
Jun 13, 4:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more	4 hr
Jun 13, 1:27 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Dundy	8 hr
Jun 12, 7:21 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Codington, Deuel, Grant	84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.