Alert archive / Wyoming / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 894
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 12:00 PM MDT for Big Horn County, Powder River County, Montana; 8 counties in Wyoming. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2016, 12:00 PM MDT (18:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2016, 1:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Big Horn County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Albany County, WY, Campbell County, WY, Converse County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Platte County, WY, Weston County, WY
The radar
The Riverton/Lander radar (KRIW), 245 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Riverton, WY (KRIW), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -249 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1903 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
020
ACUS11 KWNS 131801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131800
MTZ000-WYZ000-131900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/NRN WY...SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131800Z - 131900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN/NRN WY AND SERN MT...WITH THREATS OF
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF ASCENT PRECEDING AN ERN GREAT BASIN VORT MAX
IS OVERSPREADING CNTRL WY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. AN AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS IS
CENTERED FROM SWRN SD INTO ERN MT TO THE E OF A SFC TROUGH LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM KBIL SWD TO NEAR KLAR. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER A
HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NRN/ERN
WY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 1000-1500 J/KG
PER RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS DATA. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY MID-AFTERNOON...FEATURING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER...A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL...PARTICULARLY INVOF MORE BACKED/SELY SFC WINDS ACROSS FAR
SERN MT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HRS...AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE
ACROSS ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 45970521 43770413 41740407 41200480 41130605 43340602
44760662 45240763 45690798 46110771 46010546 45970521SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 12:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Prairie and 3 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 13, 1:37 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more | 53 min |
| Jun 13, 2:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud and 2 more | 54 min |
| Jun 13, 3:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 3 more | 95 min |
| Jun 13, 4:07 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.