Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 897

June 13, 20169 counties in Montana; 14 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 3:40 PM MDT for 9 counties in Montana; 14 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 13, 2016, 3:40 PM MDT (21:40 UTC)
Expired: Jun 13, 2016, 5:15 PM MDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 23 counties

Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Valley County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 202 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251Jun 13, 3:45 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2468 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

691 
ACUS11 KWNS 132140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132140 
NDZ000-MTZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 132140Z - 132315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT INTO WRN ND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND WW ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST REASONING PROVIDED IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED MCD
895 FOR THIS REGION REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS WRN ND TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 21Z RAP
MESOANALYSIS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 
INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND. BROAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W
APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...LATEST SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE PARALLEL HRRR...SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL
EXTEND INTO PARTS OF WRN ND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   46780398 46910577 46950752 49060701 49050449 49030203
            47040178 45980185 45970395 46780398

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 12:00 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Horn, Powder River	60 min
Jun 13, 12:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Prairie and 3 more	9 hr
Jun 13, 1:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more	53 min
Jun 13, 2:51 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud and 2 more	54 min
Jun 13, 4:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.