Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 895
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2016, 1:37 PM MDT for 8 counties in Montana; 6 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2016, 1:37 PM MDT (19:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2016, 2:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Valley County, MT, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Williams County, ND
The radar
The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
371
ACUS11 KWNS 131938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131937
NDZ000-MTZ000-132030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...NWRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131937Z - 132030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS NERN MT INTO NWRN ND THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AREAL EXPANSION OF WATCH 249 OR ISSUANCE A NEW WW...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN MT...EVOLVING OUT OF
REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION FROM E-CNTRL MT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH INFLOW AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS OVER E-CNTRL MT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF N-CNTRL MT MAY CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO NERN MT AS IT ENTERS A MORE FAVORABLE AIR
MASS.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
ACCOMPANYING ANY ORGANIZED TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP. ISOLATED STRONG
TO DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RELATIVELY NARROW
LONGITUDINAL EXTENT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO WRN PORTIONS OF ND. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL
SVR THREAT...FOR POSSIBLE AREAL EXPANSION OF SVR TSTM WATCH 249 OR
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 49000428 48990223 48200208 47090204 47010520 46880659
46910772 47420786 48250778 48990623 49000428SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 12:00 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Horn, Powder River | 60 min |
| Jun 13, 12:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Prairie and 3 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 13, 2:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Horn, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud and 2 more | 54 min |
| Jun 13, 3:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Daniels, Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt and 3 more | 95 min |
| Jun 13, 4:07 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt and 2 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.