Mesoscale Discussion 698

Issued

May 23, 2016, 6:08 PM CDT (23:08 UTC)

Expired

May 23, 2016, 8:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 172 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

079 
ACUS11 KWNS 232309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232308 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS/WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH TX AND THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 200...

VALID 232308Z - 240115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 200 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TO SUSTAIN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS WATCH AREA.  ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS REMAIN THREATS.  A FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 200
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TO THE ENE THROUGH EASTERN CO...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT GLANCING
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
APPEAR TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCING EFFECTIVE SRH WITHIN WW 200. 
TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE SHOWED THIS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING
WESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT IN
THE WESTERN PART OF WW 199...THE INITIAL SEVERE STORM THAT MOVED TO
THE EAST THROUGH DONLEY COUNTY HAS SINCE WEAKENED.  ALTHOUGH THIS
STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
OF 3000-3500 J PER KG/...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MUCH WEAKER EAST
OF THE DRYLINE...AND IS LIKELY LIMITING THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS STORM
AND ANY OTHER STORMS THAT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. 
MEANWHILE...ANY LEFT-MOVING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WW 199
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUSTAINED AS THEY TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE /THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF WW 200/.

FARTHER NORTH...A WESTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING
TO SLOW IN SPEED AS IT MERGED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE IN FAR NORTHWEST OK /HARPER AND WOODS COUNTIES/ AND TO THE
VICINITY OF DDC.  VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATED A COUPLE OF CBS HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST WOODS
COUNTY OK AND COMANCHE COUNTY KS.  STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE AVAILABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL CU/MODERATE CU FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM CARSON TO ROBERTS COUNTIES TX...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
MAY NEED TO ADDED TO WW 200 IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS STORMS FORM ALONG
THE RETREATING DRYLINE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34760106 35830062 37080065 37530103 38250107 38279964
            37969906 37399883 37309841 36509854 36269888 35959869
            35009864 34189874 33879906 33499952 33549992 34030004
            34640012 34760106

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.