Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 693
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 1:32 PM CDT for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2016, 1:32 PM CDT (18:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 23, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 21 counties
Borden County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2825 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 985 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 126 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 4.8
The text
As transmitted.
037
ACUS11 KWNS 231832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231832
TXZ000-232030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231832Z - 232030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE DRYLINE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT
A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL HIGH-BASED CB DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY WITH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ALSO EVIDENT
INTO PECOS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION
THROUGH 20Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO MINIMAL DRYLINE CU AT THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG AMID VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY INITIALLY TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK...BUT
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TOWARDS EVENING...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL IS
ANTICIPATED.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32940199 33570201 33800138 33540070 33020045 32180045
30920105 29910178 29710252 30040298 30830274 31630206
32510201 32940199SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 7:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth and 22 more | 118 min |
| May 22, 7:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Hardeman, Wichita, Wilbarger | 89 min |
| May 22, 8:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 22, 9:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Dickens, Donley, Gray and 10 more | 65 min |
| May 22, 9:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Irion, Reagan | 85 min |
| May 23, 1:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Montague and 2 more | 84 min |
| May 23, 2:15 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Clay, Cooke, Grayson, Montague, Wichita and 1 more | 5 hr |
| May 23, 4:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more | 62 min |
| May 23, 2:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Hall, Hemphill and 2 more | 117 min |
| May 23, 2:32 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Borden, Brewster, Briscoe, Childress, Coke, Cottle and 37 more | 7 hr |
| May 23, 3:37 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Collingsworth, Donley, Foard, Gray, Hardeman, Hemphill and 6 more | 8 hr |
| May 23, 5:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Briscoe, Coke, Cottle, Crockett, Crosby and 30 more | 91 min |
| May 23, 6:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collingsworth, Donley, Foard, Hardeman, Hemphill, Knox and 3 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.