Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 697

May 23, 201636 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 5:29 PM CDT for 36 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2016, 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties

Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Coke County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hall County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Motley County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2825 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 104 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2825 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
985 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
126 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

804 
ACUS11 KWNS 232230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232229 
TXZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 232229Z - 240000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NEAR-TERM ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ALONG A WAVY DRYLINE...WHICH EXTENDS
GENERALLY SSWD FROM NEAR KPVW TO KFST. SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE HAS STALLED NEAR I-27/HWY 87...AND WFO LUB HAS ADDED AN
ADDITIONAL ROW OF COUNTIES TO TORNADO WATCH 199. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX...WHERE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THUS FAR
INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...BUT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ESTIMATING
MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY MATURE
STORM AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33930011 31569989 29610074 29490118 29680132 29710208
            29700265 30760277 32370203 33610205 34460155 34710098
            34610024 33930011

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 7:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth and 22 more118 min
May 22, 7:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Hardeman, Wichita, Wilbarger89 min
May 22, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more5 hr
May 22, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Dickens, Donley, Gray and 10 more65 min
May 22, 9:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIrion, Reagan85 min
May 23, 1:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Montague and 2 more84 min
May 23, 2:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Grayson, Montague, Wichita and 1 more5 hr
May 23, 4:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more62 min
May 23, 1:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Coke, Crockett, Crosby, Dawson, Garza and 15 more118 min
May 23, 2:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Hall, Hemphill and 2 more117 min
May 23, 2:32 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBorden, Brewster, Briscoe, Childress, Coke, Cottle and 37 more7 hr
May 23, 3:37 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCollingsworth, Donley, Foard, Gray, Hardeman, Hemphill and 6 more8 hr
May 23, 6:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollingsworth, Donley, Foard, Hardeman, Hemphill, Knox and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.