Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 696

May 23, 20169 counties in Kansas; 24 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 2:30 PM CDT for 9 counties in Kansas; 24 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2016, 2:30 PM CDT (19:30 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2016, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 33 counties

Graham County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Butler County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 426 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 184 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
426 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-163 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

099 
ACUS11 KWNS 231930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231930 
NEZ000-KSZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231930Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS UNCERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IF STORMS MATERIALIZE.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED
2000 J/KG.  A WEAK BOUNDARY SEPARATES THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FROM WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK...AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION AS A RESULT.  GIVEN
SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /40-45 KNOTS/ AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A SEVERE WIND
GUST ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
MATERIALIZE THROUGH SUNSET.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41789765 41649797 41159889 40349980 39570046 39180026
            39099973 39139882 39229837 39329793 39969730 40469698
            41119690 41669711 41799726 41789765

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 7:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHaskell, Meade, Seward, Stevens118 min
May 22, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGray, Haskell, Meade, Seward65 min
May 22, 10:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan and 9 more86 min
May 23, 2:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Gray, Haskell and 4 more117 min
May 23, 3:37 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 5 more8 hr
May 23, 6:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 5 more2 hr
May 22, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boone, Boyd, Cedar, Garfield, Greeley and 8 more87 min
May 22, 8:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boyd, Garfield, Holt, Knox, Loup and 2 more7 hr
May 22, 9:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 11 more94 min
May 22, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Custer and 11 more5 hr
May 23, 1:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Buffalo, Cedar and 20 more92 min
May 23, 1:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurt, Cass, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming, Dakota and 9 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.