Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 683

May 22, 20165 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in Nebraska; 33 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2016, 7:33 PM CDT for 5 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in Nebraska; 33 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2016, 7:33 PM CDT (00:33 UTC)
Expired
May 22, 2016, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 52 counties

Big Stone County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Holt County, NE, Knox County, NE, Loup County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clark County, SD, Clay County, SD, Codington County, SD, Davison County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Grant County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Turner County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1223 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1223 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1730 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

071 
ACUS11 KWNS 230033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230033 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB TO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 230033Z - 230200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN SD AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST
MN...TO THE EAST OF WW 191 AND THE SD PORTION OF WW 192.  A TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE A TRANSITION
TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...30-60-METER PER 12-HOUR 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM WY THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
EASTERN ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MON.  LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-65 KT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN. 
THIS LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED WITH AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD TO EASTERN ND THIS
EVENING.  ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MODELS SUGGEST AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH FOR A LINEAR MCS WILL OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42579968 43829937 45749809 45799701 45579650 44829588
            44119584 42819698 41689800 41139862 41159900 41599944
            42579968

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 23, 1:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Dakota and 31 more92 min
May 22, 8:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boyd, Garfield, Holt, Knox, Loup and 2 more7 hr
May 22, 9:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 11 more94 min
May 22, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Custer and 11 more5 hr
May 22, 10:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDundy, Furnas, Hitchcock, Red Willow86 min
May 23, 1:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Buffalo, Cedar and 20 more92 min
May 23, 2:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Butler, Clay, Colfax, Fillmore and 18 more2 hr
May 22, 9:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Buffalo, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds and 7 more114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.