Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 694
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 1:58 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2016, 1:58 PM CDT (18:58 UTC)
- Expired
- May 23, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 100 counties
Adair County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Mills County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Story County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Anoka County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mower County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Rock County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Burt County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Clay County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Union County, SD
The radar
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1408 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 180 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
398
ACUS11 KWNS 231859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231858
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231858Z - 232030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...ALTHOUGH A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IOWA WHERE BROKEN
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE ORGANIZED. THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /35-45 KNOTS/ FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS
SO FAR. LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
APPROACHES THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER...AS
A CANOPY OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT WILL
TEMPER SURFACE HEATING. ONLY VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL/WIND
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40669557 41079679 41909738 42979727 44139631 45239534
45599462 45619375 45409301 44899252 43959254 43009281
41889341 40669557SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 7:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Pipestone, Rock | 87 min |
| May 22, 8:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Antelope, Boyd, Garfield, Holt, Knox, Loup and 2 more | 7 hr |
| May 22, 9:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 11 more | 94 min |
| May 22, 9:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arthur, Blaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Custer and 11 more | 5 hr |
| May 22, 10:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dundy, Furnas, Hitchcock, Red Willow | 86 min |
| May 23, 1:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Buffalo, Cedar and 20 more | 92 min |
| May 23, 2:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Butler, Clay, Colfax, Fillmore and 18 more | 2 hr |
| May 22, 9:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Buffalo, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds and 7 more | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.