Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 694

May 23, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 1:58 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2016, 1:58 PM CDT (18:58 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 100 counties

Adair County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Mills County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Story County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Anoka County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mower County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Rock County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Burt County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Clay County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Union County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2016-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 180 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1408 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

398 
ACUS11 KWNS 231859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231858 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 231858Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...ALTHOUGH A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IOWA WHERE BROKEN
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE ORGANIZED.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /35-45 KNOTS/ FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS
SO FAR.  LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER...AS
A CANOPY OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT WILL
TEMPER SURFACE HEATING.  ONLY VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL/WIND
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   40669557 41079679 41909738 42979727 44139631 45239534
            45599462 45619375 45409301 44899252 43959254 43009281
            41889341 40669557

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Pipestone, Rock87 min
May 22, 8:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boyd, Garfield, Holt, Knox, Loup and 2 more7 hr
May 22, 9:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 11 more94 min
May 22, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Custer and 11 more5 hr
May 22, 10:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDundy, Furnas, Hitchcock, Red Willow86 min
May 23, 1:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Buffalo, Cedar and 20 more92 min
May 23, 2:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Butler, Clay, Colfax, Fillmore and 18 more2 hr
May 22, 9:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Buffalo, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds and 7 more114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.