Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 522
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2016, 3:59 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 1, 2016, 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC)
- Expired
- May 1, 2016, 5:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 50 counties
Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Gallia County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 196 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -30 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 619 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
871
ACUS11 KWNS 011959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011959
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SW/W WV...FAR SW VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011959Z - 012100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOME SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
THREAT.
DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INITIAL CINH NOW COMPLETELY ERODED.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER
W...CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. EVEN WITH LESS
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS AND ESTIMATED BY
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PERSISTENT HEATING AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.
..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/01/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 37288115 36978373 37678373 38628274 39028227 39168199
39388102 39148052 38518036 37288115SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 1:39 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Campbell, Carroll and 18 more | 2 hr |
| May 1, 2:11 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Calloway, Christian, Logan, Muhlenberg, Todd and 1 more | 64 min |
| May 1, 2:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 67 more | 6 hr |
| May 1, 4:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Estill and 20 more | 6 hr |
| May 1, 6:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 72 more | 87 min |
| May 1, 7:30 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Floyd, Knott, Martin, Pike | 60 min |
| May 1, 7:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alleghany, Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Craig, Floyd and 15 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.