Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2016, 1:11 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kentucky; 10 counties in Mississippi; 24 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 1, 2016, 1:11 PM CDT (18:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 1, 2016, 2:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 41 counties
Butler County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Logan County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 259 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -48 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 732 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
290
ACUS11 KWNS 011812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011811
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SW KY...WRN TN...NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011811Z - 011915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO FAR SW KY...WRN
TN...AND NW MS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST LITTLE...IF ANY...CINH REMAINS
AMIDST MLCAPE NEAR 15OO J PER KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
REGION IS WEAK BUT 12Z BNA SOUNDING SAMPLED 500-MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY
ESTIMATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 34948818 34398906 34289030 34609044 35368957 36338879
36868818 37258761 37228666 36798655 36338686 34948818SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 12:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Campbell, Carroll and 18 more | 2 hr |
| May 1, 1:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 67 more | 6 hr |
| May 1, 2:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott, Floyd and 13 more | 61 min |
| May 1, 3:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Estill and 20 more | 6 hr |
| May 1, 5:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 72 more | 87 min |
| May 1, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Floyd, Knott, Martin, Pike | 60 min |
| May 1, 3:22 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Amite, Wilkinson | 113 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.