Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 520

May 1, 201639 counties in Indiana; 24 counties in Kentucky; 30 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2016, 1:39 PM EDT for 39 counties in Indiana; 24 counties in Kentucky; 30 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 1, 2016, 1:39 PM EDT (17:39 UTC)
Expired
May 1, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 93 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Mason County, KY, Meade County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 196 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 109 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
196 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
619 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

823 
ACUS11 KWNS 011739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011739 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH THROUGH NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 011739Z - 011945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND TO A SFC LOW IN SRN IL. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IL...AND ERN ARKANSAS.
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. BASED ON THE 17Z RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OH...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
INITIATE FARTHER SW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORMS SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38978757 39698619 40318413 40558239 39878176 39048267
            38088482 37678682 38088783 38978757

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 2:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson, Harrison and 12 more6 hr
May 1, 6:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll and 42 more114 min
May 1, 6:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson and 9 more87 min
May 1, 7:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 33 more4 hr
May 1, 2:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Calloway, Christian, Logan, Muhlenberg, Todd and 1 more64 min
May 1, 3:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott, Floyd and 13 more61 min
May 1, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Estill and 20 more6 hr
May 1, 7:30 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFloyd, Knott, Martin, Pike60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.