Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 498
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 29, 2016, 12:52 PM CDT for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 29, 2016, 12:52 PM CDT (17:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 29, 2016, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 28 counties
Bell County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Travis County, TX, Williamson County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2369 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -51 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 606 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 216 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 212 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 2.6
- Supercell composite
- 14.9
The text
As transmitted.
083
ACUS11 KWNS 291753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291752
TXZ000-291945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291752Z - 291945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS ONE OR MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BROKEN BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...GENERALLY IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AS
FAR NORTH AS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. GOES-14 1-MINUTE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING AS N-S ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J
PER KG/.
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED ONE STORM HAD
DEVELOPED IN HAYS COUNTY TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BECOMING
DEEPER FARTHER WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FROM KIMBLE TO ERATH COUNTIES
TX. THIS LATTER CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL AND SWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS LIKELY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC FIELDS.
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32929662 31179705 30089769 30059880 30419985 31289930
32339866 33089820 33139789 32929662SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 7:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Coryell, Falls and 7 more | 83 min |
| Apr 28, 10:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 30 more | 89 min |
| Apr 28, 10:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 36 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 29, 1:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 17 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 29, 2:59 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more | 91 min |
| Apr 29, 4:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 28 more | 66 min |
| Apr 29, 7:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Foard and 10 more | 97 min |
| Apr 29, 9:46 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Morris | 89 min |
| Apr 29, 12:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 17 more | 114 min |
| Apr 29, 1:08 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 35 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 29, 1:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Wichita, Wilbarger | 65 min |
| Apr 29, 1:43 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 29, 1:57 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Wichita, Wilbarger | 8 hr |
| Apr 29, 3:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 31 more | 86 min |
| Apr 29, 5:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more | 93 min |
| Apr 29, 6:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.