Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 489
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 9:31 PM MDT for 4 counties in New Mexico; 36 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 28, 2016, 9:31 PM MDT (03:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 28, 2016, 11:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties
Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 699 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -53 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1006 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 69 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 290 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 462 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.7
- Supercell composite
- 12.4
The text
As transmitted.
622
ACUS11 KWNS 290332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290331
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-290500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...
VALID 290331Z - 290500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 04Z.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM WEST AND NORTH OF DALHART
TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS...ACROSS ARIZONA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 05-07Z. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...THIS MAY MOSTLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN A REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. BENEATH
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
..KERR.. 04/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36150393 36650275 36310186 36260042 35749994 34640009
33910054 33270182 32600285 32930362 33490400 34310404
35310418 36150393SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 6:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Coryell, Falls and 7 more | 83 min |
| Apr 28, 9:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 36 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 29, 12:58 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 17 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 29, 1:59 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more | 91 min |
| Apr 29, 3:54 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 28 more | 66 min |
| Apr 29, 6:38 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Foard and 10 more | 97 min |
| Apr 29, 8:46 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Morris | 89 min |
| Apr 29, 11:51 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 17 more | 114 min |
| Apr 29, 11:52 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 113 min |
| Apr 29, 12:08 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 35 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 29, 12:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Wichita, Wilbarger | 65 min |
| Apr 29, 12:43 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 29, 12:57 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Wichita, Wilbarger | 8 hr |
| Apr 29, 2:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 31 more | 86 min |
| Apr 29, 4:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more | 93 min |
| Apr 29, 5:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.