Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 489

April 28, 20164 counties in New Mexico; 36 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 9:31 PM MDT for 4 counties in New Mexico; 36 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2016, 9:31 PM MDT (03:31 UTC)
Expired
Apr 28, 2016, 11:00 PM MDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 699 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 290 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
699 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1006 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
290 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
462 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
12.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

622 
ACUS11 KWNS 290332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290331 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-290500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

VALID 290331Z - 290500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 04Z.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM WEST AND NORTH OF DALHART
TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  

A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS...ACROSS ARIZONA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 05-07Z.  SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...THIS MAY MOSTLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN A REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BENEATH
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

..KERR.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36150393 36650275 36310186 36260042 35749994 34640009
            33910054 33270182 32600285 32930362 33490400 34310404
            35310418 36150393

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 28, 6:52 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Coryell, Falls and 7 more83 min
Apr 28, 9:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 36 more7 hr
Apr 29, 12:58 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 17 more2 hr
Apr 29, 1:59 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more91 min
Apr 29, 3:54 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 28 more66 min
Apr 29, 6:38 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Foard and 10 more97 min
Apr 29, 8:46 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Morris89 min
Apr 29, 11:51 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 17 more114 min
Apr 29, 11:52 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more113 min
Apr 29, 12:08 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 35 more9 hr
Apr 29, 12:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCooke, Fannin, Grayson, Wichita, Wilbarger65 min
Apr 29, 12:43 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more8 hr
Apr 29, 12:57 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Wichita, Wilbarger8 hr
Apr 29, 2:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 31 more86 min
Apr 29, 4:42 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more93 min
Apr 29, 5:16 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.