Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 488

April 28, 201613 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 7:52 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2016, 7:52 PM CDT (00:52 UTC)
Expired
Apr 28, 2016, 9:15 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Bell County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Falls County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Williamson County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 14 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-442 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2160 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

173 
ACUS11 KWNS 290052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290052 
TXZ000-290215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 290052Z - 290215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE TEMPLE/WACO AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. 
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED NORTH OF THE
AUSTIN TX AREA.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...OR IS AT LEAST UNCLEAR...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...JUST TO THE NORTH OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEMPLE THROUGH WACO VICINITIES DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS INHIBITION BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR/HART.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30539759 30819877 31539870 31749793 31499641 31059546
            30319638 30539759

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 28, 10:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 30 more89 min
Apr 28, 10:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 36 more7 hr
Apr 29, 1:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 17 more2 hr
Apr 29, 2:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more91 min
Apr 29, 4:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 28 more66 min
Apr 29, 7:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Foard and 10 more97 min
Apr 29, 9:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Morris89 min
Apr 29, 12:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Gregg and 17 more114 min
Apr 29, 12:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more113 min
Apr 29, 1:08 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 35 more9 hr
Apr 29, 1:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCooke, Fannin, Grayson, Wichita, Wilbarger65 min
Apr 29, 1:43 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more8 hr
Apr 29, 1:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Wichita, Wilbarger8 hr
Apr 29, 3:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 31 more86 min
Apr 29, 5:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more93 min
Apr 29, 6:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.